Florida Senate race is dead heat: Poll

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) are locked in a dead heat in Florida’s Senate race, according to polling released Friday by The Hill and Emerson College Polling. 

Scott leads Mucarsel-Powell 46 percent to 45 percent among likely Florida voters, well within the survey’s plus or minus 3.4 point margin of error. Nine percent of voters said they are undecided. 

Among independent voters, 47 percent said they back Mucarsel-Powell and 34 percent broke for Scott, while 19 percent said they are undecided. Mucarsel-Powell leads Scott by 5 points among women voters, and Scott led Mucarsel-Powell by 8 points among men. 

The poll also found Mucarsel-Powell polling ahead of Scott with the state’s Hispanic vote by 6 points, while Scott led Mucarsel-Powell by 19 points among white voters. 

The Hill/Emerson College Polling survey shows the tightest race yet between the two Floridians.

A Florida Atlantic University poll released last month found Scott leading Mucarsel-Powell 47 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, while a University of North Florida poll also released last month showed the same margin. Prior to the poll’s release, The Hill’s Decision Desk HQ average showed Scott leading by 4.3 points.

Republicans have made major inroads in Florida over the past decade, making it a firmly red state. The party saw victories across the state in 2022, an election cycle when Republicans elsewhere in the country underperformed. 

The Hill/Emerson College Polling survey was conducted Sept. 3-5 among 815 likely Florida voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 points.