New poll shows Florida, Texas within margin of error in Harris-Trump race

Florida and Texas are within the margin of error in the presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris, according to a poll released Friday. 

The survey from Emerson College Polling/The Hill showed Trump leading Harris in Florida by 5 points, 50 percent to 45 percent, and in Texas by 4 points, 50 percent to 46 percent.

The results are a bit closer than what some other polling has found on the races but not completely out of sync with recent polls that have shown a tighter race in those states. 

Not much independent polling from major institutions has been done on Texas and Florida since Harris became the Democratic nominee. 

Winning either Florida, which Democrats had carried in 2008 and 2012 before the state voted for Trump twice in a row, or Texas, which Democrats have held increasing hopes about flipping blue in recent years, would be an uphill battle for Harris.

The forecast model from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ gives Trump an 83 percent chance of winning Texas and a 75 percent chance of winning Florida. But Florida is only rated as “lean Republican,” and some polls for both states have had Trump leading by single digits. 

A Florida Atlantic University poll from last month had Trump’s lead in the Sunshine State at just 3 points, and a poll from two Texas universities had Trump leading in the Lone Star State by 5 points. 

The Emerson poll showed Harris just behind Trump in favorability rating for the states. His net favorability rating was positive 2 points in both, while the vice president’s in both was negative 2 points. 

The poll also found a significant gender gap, with Trump leading among Texas men by 18 points, up from 17 points in 2020, and among Florida men by 12 points, up from 9 points four years prior. Harris leads among Texas women by 8 points, up from 3 points, and among Florida women by 2 points.

Flipping either Texas or Florida may be a stretch but would make Democrats’ path to 270 electoral votes easier and Republicans’ path considerably harder.

Democrats seeking to try to hold on to the Senate have also talked about the two states’ Republican incumbent senators as possible opportunities to expand the map. 

Emerson found the Florida Senate race between Sen. Rick Scott (R) and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) to be a dead heat, with Scott ahead by 1 point.

The poll was conducted Sept. 3-5 among 815 likely voters in Florida and 845 likely voters in Texas. The margin of error for Florida was 3.4 percentage points, and the margin for Texas was 3.3 percentage points.