Tuesday night sweep? Biden allies see the possibility

Former Vice President Joe Biden is poised for a big night according to allies and advisers, who expect him to emerge with a huge delegate lead after a half-dozen states vote in the Democratic primary on Tuesday night.

Biden is widely expected to win Mississippi and Missouri, where a big edge with African American voters has him set up to take a big lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). 

He’s also now the favorite, according to the FiveThirtyEight website, in the other four states holding contests — including Michigan, the most high-profile battleground. 

“No one wants to say this out loud, but I think it’s going to be a very good night for us,” said one major Democratic donor who supports Biden. 

“I’d go as far as saying we can take our brooms out tonight,” the donor quipped. “But no one wants to be so presumptuous.” 

Sanders won Michigan in the 2016 primary, as well as North Dakota, Washington and Idaho, which also hold contests on Tuesday.

But FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver on Tuesday morning rated Biden as the favorite in all six contests.

“Sanders has to hope that the polls are quite wrong,” Silver wrote on Twitter. “They show Biden with a narrow lead in Washington, a medium-sized lead in Idaho, and a big lead everywhere else.” 

Even if he doesn’t sweep all six states, one longtime aide said, Tuesday night’s results will help seal the deal for Biden, particularly if he wins Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi. 

“[I’d be] shocked if we sweep, but I think we win the three M’s handily which would be fatal for Sanders,” the aide said of the three states. 

In the lead-up to primary night, polls seem to be trending in Biden’s favor. 

In Michigan, a state where Sanders pulled out a surprising win in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, a string of recent polls show Biden trouncing Sanders. On Monday, a Monmouth University poll showed Biden beating Sanders 51 percent to 36 percent.

Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said Biden “appears to have the advantage because he is doing well among some groups that Sanders won four years ago.” 

At the same time, Patrick warned that “Michigan can defy expectations,” as was the case when Sanders won the state even as he trailed in the state’s polls in 2016 against Clinton, a former secretary of State.

Still, the Monmouth survey came on the heels of a Detroit Free Press poll which showed Biden leading Sanders 51 percent to 27 percent. 

Sanders allies say it’s about delegate counts and not wins in the overall states. “That’s what matters at the end of the day,” said one longtime Sanders confidant. 

Still, they acknowledge they have a lot riding on Michigan, which will hand out 125 delegates.

Biden currently leads the delegate count 670 to 574, after winning 10 out of 14 states on Super Tuesday. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) is also still in the Democratic contest despite only winning two delegates. 

A CNN poll on Monday showed Biden with a double-digit lead over Sanders nationally. The survey showed Biden leading Sanders 52 percent to 36 percent among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters. 

Biden also received endorsements from Sens. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.) on Monday, a week after other former candidates including Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) got behind his campaign. 

Biden allies say more than anything, they have momentum on their side. 

“I didn’t think I’d be saying this a month ago, or even a week ago, but I think we’re going to win this,” one ally said.