A string of recent polls is delivering warning signs for Vice President Harris ahead of Tuesday evening’s critical presidential debate.
A New York Times/Siena College poll released Sunday showed former President Trump holding a 1-point lead nationally, suggesting the Harris honeymoon as the Democratic nominee could be coming to a close.
It showed tight races in the seven battleground states, signaling the race for the White House could go in either direction.
It also showed that while 90 percent of voters said they knew everything they need to know about Trump, a smaller 71 percent said they know everything they need to know about Harris.
That suggests the vice president could have more at stake during the debate, when one of the largest audiences of the campaign season will tune in to consider their choices.
Democrats, who have been through a roller-coaster of emotions after President Biden’s disastrous debate, his exit from the race and Harris’s entry, are now being confronted with polls that suggest Trump has an enduring strength, no matter his opponent.
“We still have some race to run, but here’s the thing that worries me: We’re up against a guy who is a convicted felon, he was a terrible president and he continues to be a terrible human, and this race is still tight as a tick,” one Democratic strategist said. “We never got the expected bounce out of the convention, and I think some folks expected to have a larger advantage going into the final stretch of the campaign.”
Other Democrats said the latest polls could also help Harris and motivate her party.
“She’s right to call herself an underdog,” said Anthony Coley, a Democratic strategist who served in the Biden administration until last year. “I’m glad this poll came out. It’s a gift to Democrats … and it’s a wake-up call in many ways.”
Tuesday night’s debate could help elevate Harris’s standing, Democrats say, pointing to polls that indicate there’s more room for the vice president to grow support than Trump, who they say may have hit his ceiling.
“It can make or break her,” the Democratic strategist said. “Early voting is starting in some states, and we don’t have a lot of time and we’re not exactly where we want to be, as the Times poll shows.”
Nate Silver, the renowned polling analyst, wrote Monday in his Substack newsletter that the New York Times/Siena survey reflected a shift in momentum from Harris to Trump.
He warned that Harris could face obstacles in the final weeks of the campaign as Republicans continue to label her as a progressive while highlighting her previous positions on fracking, immigration and health care. The Times poll showed 44 percent of those surveyed said Harris is too progressive — indicating Republicans have had some success in defining her — while only 32 percent of those surveyed said Trump is too conservative.
Silver said Harris “blew one big opportunity to tack to the center with her selection of Tim Walz rather than Josh Shapiro: that a tiny minority of progressives objected to Shapiro was an argument in Shapiro’s favor, if anything.”
“I think Walz was a decent enough pick on his own merits, but given an opportunity to offer a tangible signal of the direction her presidency was headed, she reverted to 2019 mode,” Silver wrote.
Democratic strategist Christy Setzer, however, noted Harris has rallied her base, drawing thousands to her events while outraising Trump. The Harris campaign nearly tripled Trump’s fundraising in August, pulling in $361 million, it announced last week.
“Anyone worried that a single poll, showing Trump up by a single point, is reason to freak out, needs more drama in their life,” Setzer said. “If the race is close or tied, as we keep saying it is, then by definition Trump will be leading at least once or twice in the polls.
“She’s spent the last six weeks putting together an entire campaign, reversing all the trends, taking in more than half a billion dollars, and filling a bunch of stadiums in swing states,” she added. “Over the next two months, those people and those dollars will be deployed in a way Trump just can’t match.”
Democratic strategist Joel Payne agreed, saying Democrats “could not have asked for a better six weeks” from Harris.
“The paths that Kamala Harris has to 270 [electoral votes] have expanded from when she stepped into the race,” Payne said.
Still, he added that Democrats “feel confident but are by no means overconfident” about the state of play in the race.
In the coming weeks, Democrats say Harris needs to talk about her policy platforms including the economy, which has consistently been a top issue for voters.
While Harris has been criticized for not sitting down for more media interviews, many Democrats feel it’s not necessary.
“I don’t think voters sit up at night thinking she’s only talked to Dana Bash since she entered the race as the nominee,” a second Democratic strategist said of the CNN anchor.
Even though she remains the underdog, Coley said, Harris “has the wind at her back.”
“You’d much rather be Kamala Harris than Donald Trump, even with that New York Times poll.”