Trump leads Harris by just 2 points in Florida: Poll

A new poll shows former President Trump leading Vice President Harris by only 2 points in Florida ahead of what could be a tighter-than-expected race in the red state in November. 

Trump leads Harris with 49 to her 47 percent support in the Sunshine State, according to a Morning Consult poll released Monday. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus two points.

Prior to the release of the latest Morning Consult poll, The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s average showed Trump leading Harris by 3.3 percentage points. A poll released by The Hill and Emerson College last week showed Trump leading Harris by 5 points in Florida, well within the survey’s margin of error.

In the state’s Senate race between incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R) and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), Scott leads by 5 points. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s average shows Scott ahead of Mucarsel-Powell by 3 points.

The latest polling data paints a picture of a tightening race in Florida, which has been dominated by Republicans in recent election cycles. Former President Obama was the last Democrat to win the state by less than a percentage point in 2012. Trump then won the state by just more than 1 point in 2016 and by more than 3 points in 2020. 

Republicans continued to strengthen their grip on the state in the 2022 midterms, when the party saw landslide statewide victories while Republicans outside of the state largely underperformed. 

But the Harris campaign has made a number of recent investments, many of them related to abortion, as the state prepares to vote on Amendment 4, which would enshrine abortion rights into the state’s constitution. Earlier this month, Harris launched a “Reproductive Rights for All” bus tour in Trump’s hometown of Palm Beach. 

Polling released by The Hill and Emerson College last week found that 55 percent of likely Florida voters said they would back Amendment 4, while 26 percent said they plan to vote no. The measure must receive 60 percent support from Florida voters in order to pass. 

The Morning Consult poll was conducted Aug 30-Sept. 8, 2024, among 3,076 likely Florida voters with a margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.

Updated at 8:09 pm.