Democrats grow more optimistic about flipping Florida

Democrats are increasingly optimistic about their chances in Florida’s presidential and Senate races as polls show a tightening race in the state, which has dramatically trended toward the Republicans in recent election cycles. 

On Monday, a Morning Consult poll showed Vice President Harris trailing former President Trump by 2 points in the state. And last week, a poll from The Hill and Emerson College showed former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) trailing Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) by 1 point, while most other polls have shown a 4- to 5-point gap between them. 

Democrats also argue that two ballot measures in the state — one to enshrine abortion rights, known as Amendment 4, and one to legalize recreational marijuana, known as Amendment 3 — will also drive turnout for them in a presidential year. 

“It’s all the same story,” said Nikki Fried, chair of the Florida Democratic Party. “We wouldn’t have had to have an abortion amendment if the Republicans hadn’t taken our state in such an extreme direction.” 

Fried also argued that Florida voters are also experiencing Trump fatigue, contributing to “a huge momentum shift in the state.” 

“People are just tired. They’re tired of the chaos. They’re tired of the show. They’re tired of the rhetoric,” she said. “You’re seeing that with the momentum shift for Kamala Harris.” 

Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign is pushing a similar message, touting the former member of Congress as a fresh face in a state dominated by Republicans, while attacking Scott on issues related to abortion access, Social Security and Medicare. 

“There’s a lot of things moving in Florida,” said Lauren Chou, communications director for Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign. “There is a lot of new energy on the ground in Florida, a lot of hopefulness that I think comes with having fresh leaders.”

Harris’s campaign has put resources toward Florida, particularly on abortion, launching the campaign’s “Reproductive Rights for All” bus tour in Palm Beach last week, which featured Mucarsel-Powell and a number of national Democrats. Additionally, second gentleman Doug Emhoff is slated to make a campaign stop in Florida following Tuesday’s presidential debate as a part of the campaign’s “New Way Forward” tour. 

But there is still a healthy amount of skepticism that Democrats would be able to score a presidential or Senate win in Florida. While Republicans struggled nationwide in the 2022 midterms, the party made substantial gains that year in the Sunshine State. 

“Given how Florida has moved from Barack Obama in 2012 narrowly winning the state of Florida to today, 12 years later, it’s just a totally different Florida,” said Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist based in the state, who noted the party’s nearly 1 million voter registration advantage. 

Although Republicans acknowledge the abortion and marijuana ballot measures will jolt turnout in November, they repeatedly point to Florida voters’ history of backing liberal ballot measures while voting for Republican officials. Both ballot measures need 60 percent support to be approved in November, meaning support from Republican voters is essential for them to pass. 

Trump and Scott have both come out against Amendment 4, but they are split on Amendment 3, with Trump saying he is in favor of it and Scott saying he will vote against it. 

The latest poll numbers seem to be reflective of the narrowness of Trump’s and Scott’s past statewide wins. Trump won Florida by about 3 points in 2020 and by 1 point in 2016. Meanwhile, Scott won his 2018 Senate race by less than a point and his two gubernatorial victories by less than 2 points.

“Nobody has been more successful at winning close elections in the Sunshine State than Rick Scott,” O’Connell said.

In a statement to The Hill, Trump campaign senior adviser Brian Hughes noted “Florida is Trump country” and the state’s voters are ready to send Scott and Trump back to Washington. 

“Floridians are lining up to reject the Biden-Harris agenda of higher costs, open border and violent crime,” Hughes said. 

Chris Hartline, a senior adviser to Scott’s campaign, noted the senator is tying Mucarsel-Powell to the Harris administration. 

“She supported Kamala and Biden’s policies up and down the board and that’s just not going to play in Florida,” Hartline said.

In a Tuesday interview with NewsNation — which, like The Hill, is owned by Nexstar Media — Scott predicted he and Trump would do “really well” in Florida and argued voters are “fed up” with the Biden-Harris administration. 

When asked about the recent public polls showing tighter statewide races in Florida, Hartline said national pollsters have also struggled to poll “the new reality that is politics in Florida,” pointing specifically to the state’s most populous county. 

“Miami-Dade [County] is becoming a Republican powerhouse where we turn out as many votes as Democrats do,” Hartline said, referring to inroads the GOP has made in the traditionally blue county going back to the 2020 presidential election. 

A GOP poll commissioned by the county’s Commissioner Kevin Cabrera last month showed Harris and Trump tied at 47 percent there among likely voters. Another 6 percent said they were undecided. 

But Florida Democrats also say they are optimistic about Miami-Dade, pointing to their polling showing Harris ahead there.

“The national picture where independents are moving more toward Democrats and rejecting former President Donald Trump’s campaign, it’s playing out in Florida,” said Christian Ulvert, a Florida-based Democratic strategist who served as a senior adviser to the Biden campaign in 2020 in the state.

“You’re seeing the campaigns mobilize here,” Ulvert said. “It’s been a smart strategy because it all can come to be at a pivotal time for us, which is right before vote-by-mail ballots go out in Florida.”