Nate Silver lists 4 ‘huge mistakes’ so far for Trump campaign

Pollster Nate Silver warned in a post on the social platform X that the Trump campaign has made four “huge mistakes” this cycle, citing the former president’s debate performance Tuesday night as one issue within only a few hours of its conclusion. 

By Silver’s count, Donald Trump’s choice of Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate was error No. 1. A “meandering campaign speech” that squandered a “moment of goodwill” was second, followed by “not [being] prepared for Harris swap.” Tuesday’s debate rounded out the list, with Silver noting Trump was “clearly not prepped and/or incapable of sustained A-game.”

In a follow-up post, Silver argued that Trump’s acceptance of the “early Biden debate” in June could also be considered a misstep by the former president’s campaign.

“Probably the most consequential of all, though you can understand why they did it,” Silver said in the follow-up post. At the time, the belief was that an earlier debate allowed for both President Biden and Trump to recover from a poor debate performance if needed and allowed Trump to flaunt what he believed to be better mental acuity compared to the incumbent, among other potential reasons for the calendar shake-up.

Trump’s campaign, however, saw the former president’s debate performance as a success.

“President Trump delivered a masterful debate performance tonight, prosecuting Kamala Harris’ abysmal record of failure that has hurt Americans for the last 4 years,” Trump campaign co-managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles said in a statement sent to The Hill.

Trump has faced some backlash since adding Vance to his ticket in June, with rumors circulating that he regretted choosing Vance as his running mate. LaCivita shut down those rumors last month. 

“No. 2, no, it’s 100 percent not true,” LaCivita said on Fox News Radio. “They talk two, three times a day at least. JD’s been fantastic in terms of laying the wood to [Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz] and Kamala Harris. He’s been out campaigning. He’s been a great partner. And no, there’s — it’s just — it’s fake news.” 

At the Republican National Convention in July, Trump’s acceptance speech set the record as the longest in history, drawing some criticism. 

Trump has publicly complained about the switch from Biden to Harris on Truth Social.  

“So, we are forced to spend time and money on fighting Crooked Joe Biden, he polls badly after having a terrible debate, and quits the race,” Trump wrote.

CNN reported that its flash poll of registered voters who watched the debate found a majority believed that Harris beat Trump, 63 percent to 37 percent. 

The Silver Bulletin, Silver’s forecast model, showed Harris leading Trump by a little more than 2 percentage points, nearly 49 percent to Trump’s almost 47 percent, as of Tuesday. 

Updated at 1:03 p.m. EDT