Democrats cautious to claim election victory after Harris debate

Democrats in Washington, flying high after Vice President Harris’s sharp debate performance this week, are also forcing themselves back to earth in the face of a stark political reality: The race for the White House is still neck and neck, and plenty of work remains if they hope to keep former President Trump from winning a second term.

Despite what many saw as a slam dunk for Harris on debate night, those in her party are cautious to claim victory just yet.

“I don’t think this election’s over,” said Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), the head of the House Democrats’ messaging arm.

“I thought she did outstanding. … She got under his skin. He was angry. People saw the real Donald Trump. We were reminded about who he was,” Dingell continued. “I clearly was on a high, and [a party official] called me, and immediately brought me back down to earth about what’s ahead the next 58 days.”

Initial polling immediately following the debate proved to heavily favor Harris.

A CNN flash poll found 63 percent of viewers believed she outperformed Trump.  And a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, released Thursday, nearly two days later, found her leading Trump by 5 points, 47 percent to 42 percent. 

But Democrats aren’t putting too much stock in individual surveys, particularly with 53 days remaining before Election Day as of Friday, saying they’ll be focused intently on the seven critical swing states where Harris is largely tied with Trump.

Harris’s aggressive schedule – including how she’s spending money and where she’s choosing to spend her time – also signals the campaign doesn’t think the election is over, either.

On Thursday, Harris held two campaign rallies in North Carolina, and Friday, she will make two campaign stops in Pennsylvania — two states crucial to Democrats’ path to victory. She also made recent stops in Georgia and across the Sun Belt.

The Harris campaign also cut ads that feature key moments from the debate, including questions on abortion, showing Trump muddling his answers while Harris delivered sharp rebukes of the overturning of Roe v. Wade at the hands of Supreme Court justices Trump appointed.

Trump and his campaign, for their part, have given mixed messages on whether he’ll agree to another debate with Harris. That appeared to solidify Thursday, when Trump, in a Truth Social post, again asserted that he won the debate and that there was no need for another.

While the debate did little to move the needle so far in a deadlocked election, some key Harris allies say she needs to take some risks to get the attention of critical swing state voters.

“The momentum is with her, and in a close election, vibes and momentum matter. But we still have a lot of hard work to do in getting the final few yards in the battleground states,” Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) said. “It’s a toss-up race — it’s always been a toss-up race — and that was a good night for us, but we’re going to continue to need to put up points to bring it over the finish line.”

Rep. Nanette Díaz Barragán (D-Calif.), head of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, offered a similar message, warning that it’s far too early for victory laps. 

“It’s going to help her,” she said of the debate, “but there’s a lot of work to do, and this is no time to get complacent. We’ve got to keep pounding the pavement for the next 54 days.” 

Harris went into the debate leaning into her underdog image and trying to tamp down expectations about how much a debate could change the political reality after a New York Times poll published Sunday found Trump narrowly leading Harris among likely voters nationally, 48 percent to 47 percent. 

In the days since, Democrats have kept with that theme, saying Harris exceeded expectations but they’re taking nothing for granted. 

“She beamed presidential, inspired people to work hard, and got Taylor Swift’s endorsement. That is as close to a perfect night as you can get. But don’t read into my giddiness — there is a ton of work ahead, and Democrats know that,” said Ivan Zapien, a former Democratic National Committee official.

At the same time, Democrats have plenty of reason to be encouraged since Harris replaced President Biden at the top of the ticket. In just a matter of weeks, the vice president has closed a gap on Trump, particularly with key demographics, including Black, Hispanic, female and young voters.

All told, Harris has a 3.6 percentage point lead over Trump nationally, according to the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill aggregation of polls, while Biden had been trailing Trump for weeks before dropping out of the race in July.

But the national popular vote will be less important than the outcome in a handful of battleground states with decisive Electoral College votes. And swing state polling forecasts an even tighter race, with the aggregation from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill in Pennsylvania showing Harris with a 0.4 percentage point lead, Harris with a 0.8 percentage point lead in Michigan, a tie with Trump in Arizona, and Trump with a 0.3 percentage point lead in Georgia.

David Thomas, a former aide to former Vice President Al Gore, called Tuesday a “very, very good day for her” but warned against Democrats getting ahead of themselves, alluding to the 2016 election when the party prepared for a Hillary Clinton victory and ultimately lost to Trump.

“I don’t think anything’s going to be eased until the election’s done, because we as Democrats have been here before. So I hope — regardless of what the polls are going to say — she’s going to run like she’s one point behind for the next 50-plus days, and I hope that the Democrats around the country will organize like we’re one point behind,” he said.

Additionally, Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan election handicapper based at the University of Virginia, on Wednesday warned against Democrats expecting much change in the polls for Harris.

“Democrats will come out of last night feeling better about what happened than Republicans will,” they wrote. “That could have at least some short-term implications for the horse race, which is absurdly close in the polls … we would advise against jumping to strong conclusions about a changed race based on immediate changes in the numbers, if such changes materialize.”