Harris leads Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan, with tighter race in Wisconsin: Poll

Vice President Harris is leading former President Trump in Pennsylvania and Michigan by at least 5 points but has a smaller lead in Wisconsin, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University.

The poll finds Harris winning 51 percent of likely voters in Pennsylvania, compared to 45 percent for Trump. Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver each earn 1 percent support.

In Michigan, Harris wins 50 percent support in the Quinnipiac poll, compared to 45 percent for Trump and 2 percent for Stein.

In Wisconsin, Harris wins 48 percent support compared to 47 percent for Trump and 1 percent for Stein.

The findings differ from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ aggregate polling, which finds closer races in Pennsylvania and Michigan than Wisconsin. In those polling averages, Harris leads Trump by less than a percentage point in Pennsylvania and Michigan, but by 2.9 percentage points in Wisconsin as of Wednesday.

Neither candidate can likely win the White House while losing all three states. Trump won all three in 2016, while President Biden won them in 2020. The states are sometimes called the “blue wall” because of their importance to Democratic presidential candidates. The only Republican since former President George H.W. Bush to win any of the three is Trump.

The poll also found that more voters are seeing Harris favorably compared to Trump. Quinnipiac said that factor and problems with GOP attacks could explain Harris’s lead.

“The GOP’s most ‘go to’ attack strategies against Democrats on immigration and the economy may be losing momentum. Likely voters now see little daylight, in most cases, between Harris and Trump on who can best handle those key issues,” said Tim Malloy, a Quinnipiac University polling analyst.

“Favorability, that catch-all for what voters think about candidates from policy to personality to promise, tips Harris’ way since we last polled Pennsylvanians. A post-debate shift, though small, suggests voters are warming up to her,” Malloy later added.

Individuals who took the survey said the economy is a key issue for voters. In Pennsylvania and Michigan, 50 percent of those surveyed said they believed Trump would better handle the economy while 48 percent said Harris would. 

From Sept. 12 to 16, the Quinnipiac University poll surveyed: 1,331 likely voters in Pennsylvania with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points; 905 likely voters in Michigan with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points; and 1,075 likely voters in Wisconsin with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points.