Kellyanne Conway, ex-senior adviser to former President Trump, said Thursday she thinks the Republican presidential nominee will defeat Vice President Harris in the November election but noted “enthusiasm” across the board.
“The enthusiasm is there on both sides,” Conway said, in a live interview with Tim Alberta during an event at The Atlantic Festival 2024. “Certainly, you know, Kamala Harris does have a new energy and enthusiasm.”
Conway — a longtime Republican political consultant who served as Trump’s 2016 campaign manager — said, however, she predicts the former president will defeat Harris, pointing to his relative advantage in the battleground states that are likely to determine the outcome of the election.
“If the election were held today, I think President Trump would win because he has an advantage in the seven swing states right now over Vice President Harris,” Conway said, “and particularly in the swing states that get him a couple different paths to 270 which is the magic number.”
Conway suspected that some energy behind Harris’s campaign comes from her making up lost ground from when President Biden was the presumptive nominee.
“Vice President Harris, for the last two months, months plus, has been winning back a lot of the core Democratic constituencies that were elusive to President Biden at the top of the ticket,” Conway said.
“So she is doing much better than he was, among young people, among women, among men and women in the suburbs, a little bit more among African Americans, basically the same among Hispanics and union households,” Conway continued, adding that now it matters how much outreach the Harris campaign does in the battleground states.
Conway also noted much of Harris’s energy comes from “moments” she has had — including the presidential debate, which pundits and polls largely said Harris won. She said she doesn’t think, however, that will carry Harris to victory.
“I think that it was a high-risk, high-reward prospect for Vice President Harris, more than President Trump, because it was his seventh or ninth presidential debate. We haven’t heard much from her, so I think it was a very big moment for her, and she met the moment in many ways,” Conway said.
At the same time, she added, the polls do not reveal voters have changed their minds since the debate, even if they largely say Harris won.
Conway described the debate as one of a series of positive “moments” that Harris’s campaign has seen since launching in July, arguing it won’t be a significant factor in the race long-term.
“For Vice President Harris, she’s had a big moment every month since she’s gotten in. So July, she becomes the nominee: big moment. August, she has the convention: big moment. September, she had a debate,” she said.
“These things are won or lost on what you do in between those big moments,” she added.