Vice President Harris is seeing encouraging signs in Pennsylvania, a state that many see as the key battleground in the fight for the White House in November.
Many recent polls have shown Harris holding a slim lead over former President Trump in the Keystone State, and she has a 53 percent chance to win the state in Decision Desk HQ and The Hill’s election forecast.
But some polls also underscore just how close the race in Pennsylvania will be, with multiple surveys in recent days showing Harris and Trump tied there — underscoring how fierce the battle for the state’s 19 electoral votes will be.
“I would rather be where we are than where they are,” said Joe Corrigan, a Pennsylvania-based Democratic strategist. “But nothing is over. It’s just all gas and no breaks until Nov. 5.”
On Thursday, a Washington Post poll showed Harris ahead of Trump by 1 point, with a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points. A Franklin & Marshall College poll released the same day found Harris leading Trump 49 percent to 46 percent, with a 4.1 point margin of error.
Meanwhile, a Quinnipiac University poll out Thursday showed Harris up by 6 points in Pennsylvania with a margin of error of 2.7 points. The poll marks the first time either candidate has surpassed the 50 percent mark in the state this cycle. But a Marist survey out the same day showed the candidates deadlocked in the state with a margin of error of 3.1 points.
Both campaigns are crisscrossing the state this weekend, with Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) attending events in Leesburg and Hershey on Saturday. On Sunday, second gentleman Doug Emhoff will travel to Bucks County, one of the state’s swing areas.
David Urban, who was a senior adviser to Trump’s campaign in 2016, sounded an optimistic note about the former president’s chances in the Keystone State, but he acknowledged the closeness of the race.
“It is neck and neck,” Urban said. “I like our chances still better than her chances in the state. I think if the election were held today, Trump would win, but again, I’m talking about win by 75,000 votes, win by 100,000 votes.”
Urban noted that on the ground, the race feels more like it did in 2016 than in 2020, noting President Biden’s close ties to the state. And he pointed to questions about Harris’s policy stances as a weakness for her.
“You can say I am not going to ban fracking once, but you need to say it 300 times to kind of counter the 300 times you said it before,” Urban continued, referring to Harris’s reversal on the issue from when she ran for president in 2020.
Fracking in Pennsylvania has been a particular focal point for Republicans in their attacks against Harris, particularly in the southwestern region, where it is a major industry.
Harris told CNN last month her values “have not changed” and that a thriving, clean energy economy can be achieved without banning fracking.
“People, when they come into new information, can come to conclusions that are different from the conclusions that they’ve held in the past,” Corrigan said, regarding Harris’s reversal.
Democrats say they are cautiously optimistic about Harris’s standing in the polls and point to her favorability ratings over Trump. A Suffolk University poll found that 49 percent of likely Pennsylvania voters had a favorable view of Harris, while 47 percent said they had an unfavorable view. Trump, on the other hand, had a 43 percent favorability rating and a 54 percent unfavorable rating.
“If you look at the vice president’s favorability numbers in Pennsylvania, I think the fact she’s still above water speaks to the fact that people trust her more on any number of issues,” Corrigan said.
Harris’s allies also tout what they say is a strong campaign infrastructure and presence in the state.
The vice president made headlines last week when she made a campaign stop in Johnstown in the western portion of the state. The town is not considered as deeply red as the region it’s in, but it still underscores Harris’s strategy of seeking to chip away at Trump’s margins in Republican strongholds. The move is reminiscent of the 2022 midterms, when Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) and Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) waded into more rural, conservative parts of the state.
“Vice President Harris and Governor Walz would do well spending a few days in the interior of the Commonwealth,” said former Rep. Chris Carney (D-Pa), a senior policy adviser at Nossaman. “There are gettable independent and blue dog votes there, but those voters need to see Harris and Walz, assess them up close, and develop some comfort with them. The voters there need to hear directly that a Harris administration will not end fracking, will not take away guns and will keep the nation secure.”
Republicans argue the strategy employed by Shapiro and Fetterman in the state’s rural counties won’t play the same way two years later, noting Shapiro’s weak Republican opponent in state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R) and Fetterman’s connections with rural voters in the western part of the state.
“She can go to every rural community in the state and, bluntly, it’s not going to make much of a difference. She doesn’t connect with them. They don’t trust her,” a Pennsylvania-based GOP strategist and former gubernatorial candidate.
Trump will seek to run up the margins in the state’s conservative and rural strongholds, while Harris will seek to maximize turnout in the state’s most populated regions in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh areas.
The race could come down to a handful of counties that voted for former President Obama in 2012 but flipped for Trump. Those counties include Erie, Luzerne, and Northampton. Trump retained Luzerne County in 2020, but lost Northampton and Erie in 2020. A USA Today/Suffolk University poll released earlier this week showed Harris leading Trump 50 percent to 45 percent in Northampton and 48 percent to 44 percent in Erie.
While the poll numbers looks good for her, many Republicans are still expressing skepticism that she will resonate with voters in the Keystone State.
“With Kamala Harris, there’s lots of question marks,” said Urban, the GOP strategist. “What people know of her is what they saw in the 2020 campaign.”
Alex Gangitano contributed.