Democrats worry that intensified fighting in the Middle East could lead to further tensions in their party, costing Vice President Kamala Harris and other Democratic candidates in the process.
The worries are twofold. Democrats say the violence could leave some progressives unhappy with the Biden-Harris administration’s policies resulting in these voters staying home on Election Day. In the case of moderates or soft Republicans who deeply care about the state of Israel, the Democrats fear it could cost Harris and their party votes to former president Donald Trump.
Democrats were already fractured over the ongoing conflict in Gaza. But as Israel launched extensive airstrikes in southern Lebanon on Monday, killing hundreds, Democrats said there is a palpable fear that the rash of instability could pose trouble for Harris as she heads into the final weeks of the campaign.
“Right now, she’s in the worst spot,” said one Democratic strategist who has worked on recent presidential campaigns. ““She can’t undercut Biden’s policy and she also has to not upset the balance of her coalition.
“There are folks who think she’s not doing enough to help Israel and then there’s the other side who think she’s not doing enough to help the situation in Gaza,” another strategist added. “She’s in a lose-lose situation.”
Trump, perhaps sensing an opening, in recent days sought to pounce on the opportunity, saying that he is the only candidate in the race who is supportive of Israel.
“If I don’t win this election — and Jewish people would have a lot to do with that, 60 percent are voting for the enemy — Israel will cease to exist in two years,” Trump said last week at the Israeli American Council conference in Washington. “I believe I’m 100 percent right…If I do win, Israel will be safe and secure, and we’ll stop the toxic poison of antisemitism.”
During the presidential debate earlier this month, the former president also took aim at Harris for not supporting Israel and trying to have it both ways.
“She hates Israel,” he said as Harris shook her head and mouthed “Come on.”
“She wouldn’t even meet with Netanyahu when he went to Congress to make a very important speech…”
“At the same time, in her own way, she hates the Arab population,” he added.
Harris did actually meet with Netanyahu during his visit. She described their meeting as “frank and constructive.”
The vice president has said she would not change from Biden’s policies, and argued that Israel has a right to defend itself. But she has also said that far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed, and urged the sides to reach a deal that would return hostages held by Hamas and end the killing.
At the Trump-Harris debate, when moderator Linsey Davis of ABC News asked Harris about Trump’s assertion that she hates Israel, the vice president replied: “That’s absolutely not true.
“I have my entire career and life supported Israel and the Israeli people,” she said.
On Friday, talk show host Bill Maher slammed Harris for her Middle East policy, on the heels of the Israeli operation against Hezbollah that detonated Walkie-talkies and pagers.
“Here’s what Kamala Harris said this week about what we should do when the war is over: ‘No reoccupation of Gaza,’ ‘no changing of the territorial lines of Gaza’ and an ‘ability to have security in the region for all concerned in a way that we create stability.’
“I feel like if that’s what you have to say, don’t say anything,” Maher said. “Just shut up.”
When President Biden appears before the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Tuesday, the conflict in the Middle East will be among the most pressing foreign policy issues. The president is expected to address the conflict and take part in a number of sideline discussions.
Harris is not expected to attend the UN gathering. On Monday, she met with United Arab Emirates President Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan in Washington.
The messages set out by Harris really reflect the only strategy she can take, some political observers say.
“The only position she is in is to echo Biden’s position at this point in time,” said Susan Del Percio, the longtime Republican strategist who does not support Trump. “She would be doing the world a disservice if she broke away from Biden. It doesn’t mean she can’t leave the door open but right now she can’t step away from him.”
An AP-NORC poll last week found Harris and Trump virtually tied on the war between Israel and Hamas, with 36 percent saying they trust Trump more on the issue while 33 percent said they preferred Harris. Twenty percent of voters also said they didn’t trust either candidate while 9 percent said both candidates could be trusted on the issue.
The survey also showed that while it’s not a top concern for most voters, about 6 in 10 say the conflict in Gaza is an important issue when considering their vote.
“In a race as tight as this one, it takes one issue to turn everything on its head,” the first Democratic strategist said. “And Harris’s message isn’t as fine-tuned as it could be on this issue. Her answer needs a little bit of work. It feels duck-taped.”
Julian Zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University added that “it’s an extremely difficult issue for her, always was.”
“Thus far, she has found a balance, a way to give both sides confidence she is listening to them,” Zelizer said. “But if the war intensifies, so will the passions and she might face greater pressure for the kinds of answers that can anger part of her coalition.”