Gallego holds double-digit lead over Lake, Arizona Senate polls show

Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego (Ariz.) holds double-digit leads over Republican nominee Kari Lake in the Arizona Senate race, according to a pair of recent polls. 

A Fox News survey released Thursday showed Gallego with a 13-point lead, 55 percent to 42 percent, among likely voters in the state, and a 14-point advantage, 56 percent to 42 percent, with the state’s registered voters.

He also holds a wide lead with the state’s independents, 59 percent to 37 percent, and has a 23-point advantage among women in The Grand Canyon State, amassing 60 percent support. Both candidates were tied among white men at 49 percent each, according to the survey. 

The Fox poll, conducted Sept. 20-24 among 1,021 registered Arizona voters, has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

Meanwhile, a Marist Arizona Poll released Thursday found Gallego with a 10-point lead, 54 percent to 44 percent.

As in the Fox News survey, Marist showed Gallego has a wide lead among independents over Lake — who is backed by former President Trump — with 64 percent support, compared to 32 percent for the GOP candidate.

The Marist poll also found Gallego with a stronger favorability rating than Lake. About 47 percent of respondents said they had a favorable view of the Marine Corps veteran, while 35 percent had an unfavorable view. Approximately 17 percent said they’d never heard of him. Lake, who lost her 2022 gubernatorial bid in the state, had 39 percent favorability rating, and 51 percent had an unfavorable view of her, according to the poll. 

The Marist survey was conducted Sept. 19-24 among 1,524 Arizona registered voters. It has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points. 

“While the mainstream media continues to peddle Democrat-funded, biased polls, we’ve aggregated data from over 20 independent polls that show a true race within just 2 points,” a Lake spokesperson said in a statement to The Hill. “This is well within the margin of error, exposing their so-called ‘polling’ as nothing more than a calculated attempt to suppress our voters.” 

In late August, Gallego had a 15-point lead over Lake, according to a Fox News poll.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released around the same time found that the House Democrat had 49 percent support compared to Lake’s 42 percent, while 10 percent of Arizona’s voters were undecided.

Gallego currently has a 7-point lead over Lake, 49.3 to 42 percent, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ aggregate of polls.

They are running for the seat being vacated by retiring Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.

“Let’s be clear: Ruben Gallego and his corrupt D.C. allies have spent millions in attack ads and his poll numbers haven’t shifted,” the Lake campaign spokesperson said. “Meanwhile, Kari Lake is surging, and no amount of coordinated media spin will stop her from becoming the next Senator of the great state of Arizona. Arizona deserves a fighter, and Kari Lake is here to stay.”

This story was updated at 2:53 p.m.