Democrats are fighting tooth and nail to keep Nevada from slipping away from them this cycle after narrowly winning it in 2020.
The Silver State is one of seven key battlegrounds in the race for the White House but stands apart from the others thanks to its uniquely transient and service sector-oriented population, including its large number of Latino voters.
Former President Trump has looked to put Vice President Harris on defense in the state, seeking to woo voters in the Las Vegas area in particular by pledging to end taxes on tips. Harris has likewise backed that policy while also urging for raising the minimum wage as the two try to court voters in the state.
“I don’t think most voters will be affected,” said Jon Ralston, a respected voice on Nevada politics and CEO and editor of The Nevada Independent, in an email when asked how much the no-tax-on-tips pitch could sway voters.
“But Trump’s play here is to get enough service workers, who might ordinarily vote Democratic, to vote their pocketbooks, even though the policy is unlikely to go anywhere. The Culinary Union leadership has endorsed Harris, but if Trump could peel away enough workers, in a close state, who knows?”
As the race for the White House comes down to the wire, Harris, Trump and surrogates for each have made a flurry of visits to the battleground states, including Nevada. Harris is set to visit the state on Sunday and will take part in a Univision town hall there next month.
Trump held a campaign event in the state as recently as this month, while Vance visited Nevada in July.
An aggregate of Nevada surveys compiled by Decision Desk HQ shows Harris edging out Trump roughly 49 percent to 47 percent in the state.
Harris’s Nevada campaign manager Shelby Wilz touted its “robust field program,” which she said is “telling voters how Vice President Harris is fighting to bring down their costs and turn the page on Donald Trump’s extremism,” and described Trump as having “minimal presence on the ground.”
The Harris campaign noted the coordinated campaign had 14 offices and more than 120 staff. The campaign has also aired four Spanish ads as it courts Latinos in the Silver State.
A Trump campaign spokesperson told The Hill it had several dozen employees and offices in Centennial, Central Vegas, Henderson, Reno and Spring Valley.
The state is also home to a critical Senate race, as Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) vies for reelection against Republican Sam Brown. Public polling has showed Rosen leading the retired Army captain. Nevadans narrowly voted to reelect Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto over Republican Adam Laxalt two years ago in the race that ultimately decided control of the upper chamber.
While the economy and inflation have been top-of-mind issues for voters across the swing states, the issue is particularly salient in Nevada, where its service sector-oriented economy was hurt by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Nevada had an unemployment rate of 5.5 percent in August, though that percentage was much higher at 6.1 percent in the Las Vegas area. Meanwhile, the national unemployment rate sat at 4.2 percent that same month.
Despite Trump losing the state the last two times he was on the ballot, Republicans believe the economy positions him favorably this time around.
“Because simply put, are you better off today than you were four years ago?” said Pauline Lee, chair of the Nevada Republican Club, echoing a popular line Trump has repeated this cycle.
Michael McDonald, the chair of the Nevada GOP and a senior adviser to Trump, suggested that Trump’s economic proposals — which also include not taxing on overtime and not taxing Social Security — were “resonating with voters across our state.”
“As Nevadans look to the future, they are increasingly turning to President Trump’s economic policies as the solution to getting ahead, not just getting by,” McDonald added.
Democrats argue that voters shouldn’t trust Trump on the economy. Culinary Workers Union Local 226 Secretary-Treasurer Ted Pappageorge, whose union is the largest in the state and has historically been an integral part of Democrats’ voter turnout efforts, argued “the reality is Trump lies and he lies a lot.”
“Trump was president for four years. Never raised a peep about taxes and tip earners,” Pappageorge said.
Democrats are leaning into familiar issues like reproductive rights, as well as seeking to play defense on others, like the border and immigration.
The issue of abortion is particularly salient since Democrats are putting a measure before voters this fall that would enshrine abortion protections into the state Constitution. Nevadans already passed a referendum in 1990 that legalizes abortion through 24 weeks, though this measure would amend the state Constitution.
Trump has sought to blunt the issue by saying it should be left to the states, though reproductive rights have become increasingly tricky to navigate as some states have enacted tighter restrictions around abortion access since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
Emmanuelle Leal-Santillan, communications director for Somos PAC, said abortion is an important issue for Latino voters — a critical demographic that makes up about a fifth of registered Nevada voters.
“The theme here is that Latinos want more opportunities, not less, and that cuts across issues like the economy, like abortion, like immigration,” Leal-Santillan said. “And so when you want to take away key opportunities, key tools that people have, that does not resonate well with anyone.”
Harris has also sought to position herself as tough on the border and immigration, issues that are also on voters’ minds despite Nevada not being a traditional border state. She made a visit to the border on Friday in Arizona. Meanwhile, Republicans have continued to dub her “border czar” and hammer her over the issue.
Experts agree the race will be close, like elections for president in the Silver State most often are.
Daniele Monroe-Moreno, chair of the Nevada State Democratic Party, said while she’s seen a shift in the poll numbers, “we’re not taking anything for granted.”
“I’m feeling good, but I don’t feel I’ve won it, you know?” she said. “I still feel we’re the underdog trying to make sure we get to that win.”
Republicans, meanwhile, are optimistic Trump could beat expectations there.
“I think right now, it’s pretty obvious that Harris has the advantage. She has the advantage in terms of momentum, in terms of those polling movement over the summer,” said Zac Moyle, former executive director for the Nevada GOP, noting “Trump has the most opportunity.”
“I think each candidate has one of those two sides of the coin, and it’s just how to utilize those things.”
Updated at 1:57 p.m. EDT