Harris leading Trump by 2 points in Pennsylvania: Poll

Vice President Harris holds a 2-point advantage over former President Trump in Pennsylvania, a new AARP poll shows.

In the recent survey, Harris garners 49 percent support to Trump’s 47 percent. Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 1 percent support, and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver receives statistically no support. Another 3 percent say they are undecided.

In a head-to-head match-up, Harris’s lead over Trump ticks up by 1 point, 50 percent to 47 percent, with 3 percent undecided, the poll found.

The latest survey marks a 7-point shift from a poll conducted in April, months before President Biden withdrew from the race, when Biden trailed the former president by 5 points.

The poll reflects some broader shifts in Harris’s support, when compared to Biden’s support in April.

Harris sees a 15-point boost in the polls among voters ages 18-49, many of whom said in April they were voting for a third-party candidate or were undecided. The vice president now leads her Trump 54 percent to 40 percent among the age group.

Trump’s support in April among voters ages 18-49 was similar to his support in the latest poll, yet he still led Biden 41 percent to 40 percent. The biggest shift comes from third-party voters, which made up 13 percent of the Pennsylvania electorate in April but now makes up 3 percent. Undecided voters have also decreased, from 5 percent in April to 3 percent in September, the survey found.

Harris has narrowed the deficit among voters ages 50-64, now earning 43 percent support to the former president’s 53 percent. In April, Biden trailed Trump 53 percent to 37 percent.

The vice president has also lost ground among people 65 and older. In April, older adults favored Trump 46 percent to 45 percent, but his support has risen significantly since then, now leading Harris 52 percent to 45 percent.

Harris has made gains among independents, as well. She now leads Trump 49 percent to 40 percent, whereas Trump led Biden in April among the voting bloc 37 percent to 31 percent.

Her support has grown among women, who now support the Democratic nominee over Trump by a 57 percent to 38 percent margin, compared to Biden’s 44 percent to 41 percent lead over the former president in April.

Harris also halved the GOP nominee’s lead in rural Pennsylvania, where Trump led Biden by 36 points in April but now leads Harris 58 percent to 40 percent. In suburban Pennsylvania, Harris now leads 53 percent to 43 percent — an 11-point shift from April, when the former president led Biden by 1 point.

The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling index shows Harris with an even narrower lead in the Keystone State — 48.9 percent to Trump’s 48.3 percent.

Pennsylvania is seen as a critical battleground state for both campaigns ahead of the November election. Biden won the state narrowly in 2020.

The AARP survey conducted Sept. 17-24, among 1,398 respondents — including 600 likely voters in the state — has a margin of error that falls between 3 and 5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.