Carville says White House race ‘long way from decided’

Veteran Democratic political strategist James Carville said the 2024 White House election between former President Trump and Vice President Harris is a “long way from decided.” 

CNN host Michael Smerconish asked Carville, the architect of former President Clinton’s winning 1992 presidential campaign, why Harris, the Democratic nominee, is not ahead in the contest if the economy, including unemployment and stock market numbers, was “strong.” 

“James, big jobs report yesterday, robust stock market, declining interest rates, tamed inflation, if it’s the economy, stupid, why isn’t Harris ahead?” Smerconish asked Carville on Saturday morning, borrowing the strategist’s famed 1992 phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid.” 

“Well, first of all, you forgot to drop in crime rate, which is really impressive,” Carville said in response before launching into his assessment.  

“You know, she’s slightly ahead in this not the election,” he continued. “These things tend to break one way or the other at the end. There are seven swing states. The least likely result is they break 4-3. But I can’t stop the commentariat from saying it’s going to be neck and neck and it’s going to come down to this.

“I think it will break at the end, I think someone will carry swing states 5-2 or 6-1. Whoever does that will do well in the House and do well in the Senate. But this thing is a long way from decided.” 

Carville’s remarks on the White House contest come as the U.S. added 254,000 jobs in September, according to Labor Department data published Friday. The unemployment was at 4.1 percent. Both numbers exceeded expectations.

The Democratic strategist said in late September that he had a “feeling” that Harris will triumph in this year’s election. 

“I don’t like to predict elections,” Carville said. “I would just say, this just doesn’t feel like a race that Harris is gonna lose.” 

“But that’s just a feeling. That’s just a feeling,” he added. 

According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s latest aggregate of national polls, the vice president leads Trump by 3.4 percentage points, 49.8 percent to 46.4 percent.