Harris takes lead in NYT poll; is seen as more likely than Trump to represent change

Vice President Harris took a slim lead over former President Trump in the latest national survey conducted by The New York Times and Siena College.

The poll, released Tuesday, shows Harris with a 3-point lead over Trump, 49 percent to 46 percent, in a head-to-head match-up among likely voters.

Harris also maintains her 3-point edge over Trump in a multi-candidate race, 47 percent to 44 percent. In that scenario, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver each get 1 percentage point, with no other candidate exceeding half a point, according to the poll.

The vice president also pulled ahead of her GOP opponent when respondents were asked which candidate “represents change” more: 46 percent said Harris, 44 percent said Trump, 2 percent said both, 4 percent said neither and 4 percent said they did not know or refused to answer.

Harris’s lead was most significant on the question of representing change among nonwhite and younger likely voters.

Sixty-one percent of nonwhites viewed Harris more as the change candidate, while 29 percent viewed Trump in that way. Among likely voters under 30, 58 percent saw the Democratic nominee as representing change, while 34 percent said the same of the former president.

The poll marks the first time since July that Harris has led in the Times/Siena survey, pollsters noted. Last month, shortly after the two candidates faced off on the debate stage, Harris and Trump were tied nationally at 47 percent.

Entering the final stretch before Election Day, now less than a month away, the race is historically close. It will likely be decided by the outcomes in seven key battleground states, where the margins between the two candidates are close enough to favor either one. In most states, voter preferences are baked-in.

The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national polling average shows a similarly close race between Harris and Trump, with the vice president leading by 3.4 points, 50 percent to 46.6 percent.

The latest Times/Siena poll was conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6 among 3,385 likely voters. The margin of sampling error is 2.4 percentage points.