NYT poll shows Trump with big leads in Florida, Texas

Former President Trump has opened up a sizable lead in the presidential race in Florida and Texas one month out from Election Day, a New York Times poll published Tuesday showed.

The survey, conducted by the Times and Siena College, found Trump leading in his home state of Florida by 13 percentage points over Vice President Harris. The former president is also ahead of Harris by 6 percentage points in Texas.

The findings may deal a blow to the idea among some Democrats that the enthusiasm behind Harris’s campaign since she replaced President Biden atop the ticket in July could put Florida and Texas in play.

Florida was previously considered a battleground state, but Trump won it in 2016 and in 2020, and it has trended more Republican in recent years. Texas has not gone for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976.

The same poll showed Harris with a 3-percentage point lead over Trump nationally.

The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s (DDHQ) polling index shows the GOP nominee ahead by 2.8 points — 49.7 percent to Harris’s 46.9 percent — in the Sunshine State. In Texas, Trump has a nearly 6-point lead, garnering 51.6 percent support to the vice president’s 45.9 percent.

Both Florida and Texas have Senate races on the ballot in November as well, and polling has shown those races tightening in the final weeks of the campaign.

The Hill/DDHQ average of polls in the Texas Senate race shows Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading Democratic challenger Rep. Colin Allred by just more than 3 points — 48.1 percent to 45 percent. In Florida, an average of polls in the Senate race shows incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R) leading challenger former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 2.7 points — 45.7 percent to 43 percent.

The Times/Siena poll was conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6 among 3,385 voters, including 622 voters in Florida and 617 voters in Texas. The margin of error for the full sample is 2.4 percentage points.