GOP scrambles to close fundraising gap in swing states

Republicans are scrambling to close the fundraising gap with Democrats in battleground states with less than a month to go before the election. 

Democrats across the country have consistently outraised their Republican opponents for months as they look to keep former President Trump out of the White House and hold onto their slim Senate majority despite a daunting map. 

The disparity has led to a few measures for the GOP to try to make up ground in the final weeks, like a switch in ad strategy and outside spending making up for the difference in some states. But the GOP’s cash problems have posed lingering questions about how their fundraising struggles could affect their chances in November. 

“The one thing that is critical is, even if you have a lot of money, do you know how to use it?” said David Lublin, a professor and chair of the Department of Government at American University. 

Democrats entered 2024 having to defend more than a half-dozen Senate seats, including two in red-leaning states and the rest in battlegrounds that could go either way in the presidential race. Meanwhile, Democrats eyed two targets in Florida and Texas, but they seemed to be more of a stretch. 

Republicans are still favored to take the Senate, with Decision Desk HQ giving the GOP more than a 70 percent chance of winning the upper chamber. Yet, Democratic Senate candidates are giving their opponents a run for their money and are polling ahead of them in many cases.

Campaigns have until early next week to report their fundraising totals for the third quarter of 2024, so the picture from the last full quarter before the election is still unclear. 

The campaign arms for the Senate Democrats and GOP had roughly the same amount of money through August, according to their Federal Election Commission filings, but from 2023 through the halfway point of this year, Democratic candidates brought in millions more than their GOP opponents. 

This is despite the GOP nominating several very wealthy candidates who have been able to partially self-fund their campaigns yet haven’t contributed enough to make up the difference. 

Politico reported last week that the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the Senate GOP campaign arm, was switching its ad strategy, canceling the independent expenditure ads it buys on its own in favor of hybrid ads that are jointly purchased with a campaign and are less expensive. 

Republican strategist Vinny Minchillo argued the strategy is a smart way to make money go farther. 

“The thing about the hybrids that’s really interesting is you make your money go maybe twice as far, because then you can buy that hybrid-to-candidate rate instead of at the higher third-party rate,” he said, though he also acknowledged they can be difficult to produce for ad makers. 

Hybrid ads are required to spend an equal amount of time on a certain issue or the national party as to a specific candidate, limiting the amount that can be spent discussing a specific race. 

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) leaned into its fundraising advantage in response to the NRSC’s decision. 

“Senate Democrats are well positioned to defend the majority because we have superior candidates, stronger campaigns, and the better message,” DSCC spokesperson Tommy Garcia said. “While Republicans are slashing their advertising, Senate Democrats are expanding the map and going on offense.” 

NRSC communications director Mike Berg acknowledged in a statement to The Hill that the Democrats’ fundraising advantage is an obstacle for the GOP.

“The money gap is a real problem for Republicans as a whole. We’re heavily utilizing strategies like hybrid ads to get more bang for our buck on TV ads,” Berg said.

Republicans are also being uplifted by outside spending from super PACs spending millions of dollars on the races, and plenty of money is still flowing into them on the GOP side. A super PAC backed by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) revealed last week that it is injecting $6 million into Senate races. 

The Ohio Senate race between Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and Republican Bernie Moreno is close to becoming the most expensive nonpresidential race on record, with aired Republican spending outpacing Democratic spending by $24 million, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. 

The Pennsylvania race between Sen. Bob Casey (D) and Republican Dave McCormick is a clear second in spending. General election spending on aired ads was about even for Democrats and Republicans in the race, but the GOP had $20 million worth more in future ad reservations as of Saturday, AdImpact reported. 

“The outside groups are really, really important, and they’re the really big players in the Senate races this time around, more so than the campaigns, which it’s not surprising, because they have a lot more flexibility and a lot more opportunities to raise money in different ways that the campaign can,” Minchillo said.

But at the same time, the fundraising numbers reveal which races aren’t being seen as priorities for donors, especially as polls show some Senate races getting away from Republican candidates. 

Only $17 million in aired ad spending from Republicans had been made as of Saturday in Arizona, compared to $49 million from Democrats. Polling has shown Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) leading Republican Kari Lake by close to 10 points, if not higher, even as the race for the state is neck and neck between Vice President Harris and former President Trump. 

“You can’t get your message out if you don’t have money. It’s that simple,” said Arizona Republican strategist Barrett Marson. “And Ruben Gallego has had tens of millions of dollars and swamped the Kari Lake campaign from the beginning.” 

The gap is similarly notable in Nevada, with Democratic aired ad spending and reservations both outpacing Republican spending by about $20 million, according to AdImpact. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) leads Republican Sam Brown in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill polling average by about 9 points. 

Democratic strategist Daniel Fee said his party’s advantage in fundraising — or at least its competitiveness in keeping up in the fundraising battle — is a good sign the party can hold onto the Senate. 

“There’s certainly ideological donors who just donate to Democrats or Republicans as they are. But anybody that’s in the middle or some of the non-ideological PACs, they simply don’t give to people they think they’re going to get” blown out, Fee said.

Updated at 9:58 a.m.