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Harris holds 1-point lead over Trump nationally: Poll

by Julia Manchester - 10/18/24 6:00 AM ET

Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 1 percentage point nationally, according to an Emerson College survey released Friday.

The poll found 49 percent of voters said they supported Harris, while 48 percent said they backed Trump, a lead well within the survey’s 3-point margin of error. One percent of voters surveyed said they will support someone other than the major nominees, while another 2 percent said they were undecided.

However, when undecided voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward, support for Harris increased to 50 percent, and Trump’s went to 49 percent.

The poll also showed Harris leading Trump in terms of favorability; 53 percent of voters said they had a favorable view of Harris, while 47 percent said they had an unfavorable view of her. Trump holds a 49 percent favorable rating and a 51 percent unfavorable rating.

The gender gap between Harris and Trump’s supporters, which has received a fair amount of attention in recent weeks, was evident in the poll’s findings: Trump led Harris among men, 56 percent to 42 percent, while Harris led among women, 55 percent to 41 percent.

The latest poll comes less than three weeks out from Election Day and as early voting has kicked off in a number of states. Eighty percent of voters said they had made up their minds about who they would vote for more than a month ago, while 11 percent said they made their decisions in the last month and six percent in the past week. Three percent said they were still undecided.

“Voters who made their decision on who to support over a month ago break for Trump, 52 percent to 48 percent, while voters who made up their mind in the last month or week break for Harris, 60 percent to 36 percent,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “The 3 percent of voters who said they could still change their mind currently favor Harris, 48 percent to 43 percent.”

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The findings are illustrative of the tightening race between Harris and Trump. The Hill’s Decision Desk HQ average shows Harris leading Trump by just less than 3 points. Polling out of the battleground states also shows razor-thin margins as well.

The Hill Decision Desk HQ average shows Harris leading Trump by less than a percentage point in Michigan, while in Arizona, Trump leads by 1.5 points. Harris leads by 0.2 points in Nevada, and Trump is up by 0.5 points in Wisconsin. In Pennsylvania, the battleground state with the most Electoral College votes, Harris leads Trump by a narrow 0.3 points.

The Emerson College poll was conducted Oct. 14-16 among 1,000 likely voters.

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