The early voting totals in Nevada could signal “serious danger” for Vice President Harris and Democrats in the state, according to a longtime reporter in the state.
Jon Ralston, who has covered the state for three decades and runs The Nevada Independent, said in a post Monday that, through three days of early voting and counting of mail-in ballots, more Republicans had submitted ballots than Democrats for the first time in a presidential election year since at least 2008.
Republicans lead in counted ballots by about 6,000, roughly 2 percent, Ralston noted in an updated post Tuesday morning.
He explained Monday that the “firewall” that generally contributes to a Democratic advantage from Clark County has “collapsed,” with Democrats only leading Republicans there by about 4,500 votes. The county is the most populous in the state and home to Las Vegas.
The Democrats’ lead in Clark County grew to about 6,500 following the counting of additional mail-ins added overnight Monday to Tuesday.
Ralston said rural areas are also outperforming what should be their share of the electorate by almost 4 points.
“The large mail ballot lead enjoyed by Dems has been erased and more by the GOP lead in in-person early voting,” he said.
Analysts have cautioned against too much reliance on early vote data for predicting what the final election results may be, as each election is different. While the data does show party affiliation by voter, it doesn’t reveal how someone voted, providing the possibility of hidden cross-party votes.
Ralston, one of the top experts on Nevada politics, did note some caveats in his analysis. He said now is still too early to call the data a trend, and lots of mail-in ballots remain left to come in.
But he described Monday as a “huge day” for Republicans in Nevada as they have a 2-point turnout advantage with almost 250,000 votes cast, which he predicted is not far from a fifth of the total vote.
“A few more days like this, though, and the Democratic bedwetting will reach epic proportions,” Ralston said.
Former President Trump has railed against early and mail-in voting as part of his false claims that voter fraud cost him the 2020 race. But Republicans heading into 2024 have sought to counter traditional Democratic domination in early and mail-in voting.
The GOP has launched a “Swamp the Vote” operation to encourage more Republicans to vote ahead of Election Day this year.
Trump has also called on his supporters to vote through any of the methods available while still not conceding his 2020 loss.
Nevada is one of seven battleground states likely to determine the outcome of the election. It is also host to a competitive Senate race between incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) and Republican Sam Brown.