The Memo: State reopenings will scramble national political picture

A growing number of states are moving toward partial reopening of their economies in the belief that the threat from the coronavirus has peaked. But how those decisions play out will have profound effects on the national political picture.

President Trump has favored an aggressive approach to reopening, with some caveats.

If states that are pushing faster to reopen do so without incurring serious damage, it could give Trump a boost. If, on the other hand, those moves backfire and lead to a resurgence of the virus, there could be a political price to be paid.

The different partisan leanings on the issue were once again on display on Monday. 

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, said he would allow some businesses to reopen on Friday, though with a much reduced capacity. Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards, a Democrat, announced that he would extend the stay-at-home order in his state until at least May 15.

Most of the states headed toward early reopenings have Republican governors, but the partisan lines sometimes get crossed. Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat, is getting his state’s reopening underway on May 1.

At a White House news conference on Monday, asked about states’ plans to reopen, Trump said, “We recommend they do it as quickly as possible, but safely.” 

He also suggested that some states could reopen schools for some part of the remainder of the academic year, even if they were not willing to reopen businesses. It would be “a good thing” for schools to open up even for a brief time, he said.

Previously, Trump has noted repeatedly that the “cure” for the coronavirus crisis — an economic shutdown — must not be worse than the disease itself.

At the same time, Trump made his displeasure clear with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) late last week, after Kemp allowed some businesses to reopen on Friday.

“I want them to open as soon as possible and I want the state to open. But I was not happy with Brian Kemp. I will tell you that,” Trump said at a news conference on Thursday.

Opinion polls suggest that most Americans are still more concerned about the health dangers posed by the coronavirus than the economic consequences of the shutdown.

A recent poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation, conducted from April 15-20, asked whether “strict shelter in place measures” were “worth it” to protect people or were “placing unnecessary burdens on people and the economy.”

Eighty percent of adults said the measures were worth it, whereas only 19 percent said they were causing more harm than good.

Even so, public opinion could be prone to rapid shifts, especially amid such an unprecedented crisis. 

The same Kaiser poll asked respondents whether the worst effects of the coronavirus were “behind us” or “yet to come.” Those who said the worst was over were a minority, at 31 percent. But that was more than double the 13 percent who felt the same way about three weeks previously.

The economic impacts of the shutdown are biting harder by the week. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett predicted on Monday that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) could fall by as much as 30 percent in the second quarter.

“For second quarter GDP, it’s going to be the biggest number we’ve seen since the Great Depression,” Hassett said during an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

More than 26 million people have made new unemployment claims in the past five weeks.

Yet, at the same time, Hassett predicted during his CNBC interview that “if the virus does start to go away in a way that makes it so that most every state feels comfortable that it’s safe to open up, then we really could be looking at a rapid recovery.”

Across the nation, the question is whether those states will feel that degree of comfort.

Jerry Austin, a Democratic strategist in Ohio, said that “everybody is watching to see if there is an increase in people who have the virus. For the life of me, I don’t know how you do social distancing in a nail salon or a hairdresser’s.”

Austin complimented his state’s Republican governor, Mike DeWine, for having “shown a lot of leadership” on the issue. DeWine on Monday laid out a plan for a staggered reopening of the state, with different sectors of the economy able to open on different dates.

Still, Austin argued that the crisis would put the Buckeye State in play in November’s election even though Trump won it by a comfortable 8 points over Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump has “failed the test of leadership” in the crisis, Austin said.

Republicans, though, contend that Trump’s push to reopen the economy — and the general push of the GOP to be more aggressive about a restart — could rebound to their benefit.

“There is a tug of war going on between Democrats who seek to control [via the federal government], and Republicans who tend to reject that and favor more of home rule and self determination — and letting people get back to work,” said Brad Blakeman, a veteran of former President George W. Bush’s administration and a Trump supporter.

“America has got to get back to normal,” Blakeman added. “We can’t sustain ourselves at home.”

How the next few weeks go could mean everything for November.

In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), a Trump ally, came under criticism for not issuing a stay-at-home order as soon as other governors.

When it comes to November, however, “the way the president handles himself is probably going to be as much of an issue as DeSantis’s orders,” said Susan MacManus, a political science professor emeritus at the University of Southern Florida.

“For the president, the handling of this will be a huge issue and Democrats are going to campaign heavily on it,” MacManus added.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage, primarily focused on Donald Trump’s presidency.