Democrats are nervous, but they say they haven’t given up hope that they’re going to win the presidential race.
Quite the opposite.
They say Vice President Harris holds a number of advantages over former President Trump, and while the election will be close, they can prevail.
Democrats point to their ground operation across the battleground states, which they say is much more robust than Trump’s set-up. Harris will need to lean into this operation to win.
Party operatives also say Harris has more room than Trump to persuade some voters to back her.
While Trump has hit a ceiling in terms of support, they say, Harris can still move some undecided voters. Democrats say Trump is a known quantity, while voters are still learning more about Harris in the final days of the campaign, giving her room to lure undecided voters to her column.
They also maintain they have the advantage of history, pointing to the surprise loss in 2016, when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton.
“We’re not taking s— for granted like in 2016,” said Democratic strategist Eddie Vale, who highlighted the way the Harris campaign’s field operation is “churning away.”
Democratic strategist Christy Setzer said she is also feeling confident despite the skittishness of other operatives.
“Reality is, Harris has run a brilliant campaign,” Setzer said. “Her favorables are way up, perceptions of the economy are better, she’s raised an obscene amount of money and has an unparalleled ground game.”
While Setzer said she has some “quibbles” with the campaign, including how much time Harris has spent courting voters alongside former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), “they’re small.”
“Harris has played this as well as anyone could have hoped for,” she added. “Sure, polls are close, but Republicans haven’t had a good election since 2016, so I put less stock in them.”
Veteran political strategist James Carville made the case for Harris in a Wednesday op-ed, writing in The New York Times that “the biggest reason Mr. Trump will lose is that the whole Republican Party has been on a losing streak since Mr. Trump took it over.”
“See 2018: the largest landslide for Democrats in a midterm election since Watergate. See 2020: He was decisively bucked from the White House by Joe Biden. See 2022: an embarrassment of a midterm for Republicans off the heels of Dobbs,” the architect of former President Clinton’s 1992 White House victory wrote. “This is shaping out to be a record-turnout election — and if the bigger coalition turns out with equal enthusiasm, it will be lights out for Mr. Trump.”
A string of polls in recent weeks have trended toward Trump, causing some heartburn and fear for Democrats. Cracks in the “blue wall” of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have also appeared.
Democrats have also seen record numbers of Republicans voting early in battleground states including Nevada, and they’ve watched as Democratic Senate incumbents in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have lost ground and are now in “toss-up” races. In Michigan, Arab American voters have been a worry for Democrats as the crisis in the Middle East continues to play out.
Democrats privately acknowledge their nervousness.
“I don’t feel great,” said one prominent Democratic strategist Wednesday. “And I think she’s run a good campaign, but there will be questions about whether or not she did enough between when she got the nomination and 2-3 weeks ago when she started to do more outreach and interviews and whether or not she did enough to convince independent voters to support her.”
At the same, the strategist held out some hope that she could ultimately overcome the odds and win, pointing to the voters Harris has won since moving to the top of the ticket when President Biden withdrew from the race: “She made up a lot of ground that Biden lost in a very short period of time, which makes you realize Trump’s numbers were kind of soft,” the strategist said.
“Some people are already writing the obituary, but I don’t think it’s over,” the strategist added. “But it’s not a slam dunk and that’s what makes Democrats feel demoralized right now.”
While most Democrats say Harris has run a solid campaign in the last three months, there have also been some questions about whether some things could have been handled better.
A second Democratic strategist worried that Harris’s message hasn’t resonated with certain demographics. In recent days, Harris has chosen to focus primarily on Trump’s threat to democracy in paid advertising and in campaign speeches. Parts of her recent round of interviews with media and influencers have also fallen flat, particularly on issues important to the electorate including the economy and immigration.
“Trump is insane and spouts gibberish,” the strategist said. “Kamala is sane but can’t give a decent, clean soundbite to save her life.”
A former Obama aide also criticized a lack of vision from the Harris campaign, and the lack of a message about why to support her apart from the fact that she isn’t Trump.
“There’s not much of Democratic vision,” the former Obama aide said. “You can ‘see’ how Donald Trump would be handling this stuff in the world. He’s going to ‘shut down the border.’ He’s going to ‘bomb Iran.’ He’s going to juice business. He’s going to cut taxes.”
“You can draw a line between him and a ‘fix,'” the aide added. “I just don’t know what a Harris administration looks like. There’s this feeling that we’re solved for action. Border? Do something. Security in an increasingly chaotic world? Do something. He may not do the right thing but he’ll ‘do something.’ Whereas Harris’s campaign is sort of about what she won’t do.”
But Trump’s apparent flaws are also giving Democrats a reason to feel better about their current standing.
“The Trump team is bifurcated: On the one hand, his staff is running a disciplined, if deceptive operation,” said Democratic strategist Anthony Coley, who worked in the Biden administration. “On the other hand, Trump undermines it with his repeated off-message and off-color commentary just as many undecided voters are starting to pay attention.”
“That’s why Harris continues to urge people to watch his rallies,” added Coley, who argued Trump is “not closing strong.”
Tracy Sefl, a veteran Democratic strategist, said “a hallmark” of Harris’s campaign “has been its steadiness.”
“No canceled events or staring off into space onstage while swaying to gay anthems; no off-script lewd tangents,” she said.
But Sefl said the stakes “are so much higher than an armchair analysis of rallies and fast-forwarded ads,” and voters recognize those stakes, which helps Harris over Trump.
“For one, the devastating harms of the Dobbs decision are real and tangible in our majority pro-choice country. Reproductive freedoms, access to health care, Social Security, even overtime wages — all at grave risk,” she said.
“Harris has made the case that she will protect these freedoms and be president for all versus an unstable control-freak dictator eager to take the country backwards. That’s the contrast I have to believe carries her to victory.”