Biden holds commanding lead among third-party voters from 2016, polls show

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is the favorite among voters who cast their ballots for Libertarian Gary Johnson or Green Party nominee Jill Stein in the 2016 presidential election, according to a polling analysis from NBC News. 

Of the 215 voters interviewed for NBC News-Wall Street Journal polls this year who said they supported either Johnson or Stein in 2016, 47 percent said they plan to vote for Biden, while only 20 percent said they will vote for President Trump, according to the NBC News analysis. 

Another 33 percent said they are either undecided or plan to back another candidate in November.

Biden’s support among voters who previously voted for third-party candidates could prove pivotal in some key states if his current margin holds. 

In 2016, Trump carried Michigan by fewer than 11,000 votes, while Johnson and Stein won a combined 223,599 votes. If 47 percent of those voters had cast their ballots for Hillary Clinton instead of Johnson or Stein, she would have easily taken the state’s 16 electoral votes. 

Likewise, in Pennsylvania, where Trump beat Clinton by just over 44,000 votes, Johnson and Stein scored just under 200,000 votes combined. Again, if 47 percent of those voters had have cast their ballots for Clinton, it would have erased Trump’s margin of victory in the state.

It’s difficult to discern too much from the NBC News-Wall Street Journal polls. The surveys include responses from voters nationally, meaning they do not offer insight into voter attitudes or preferences in individual states.

But the polls suggest that 2016’s third-party voters as a whole may be more likely to support Biden over Trump, potentially giving the former vice president a boost come Election Day.