Biden leads Trump by 7 points among likely voters in new Monmouth poll

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump by 7 points among likely voters nationally, according to a new Monmouth University poll released on Thursday. 

The poll shows Biden garnering the support of 51 percent of likely voters to Trump’s 44 percent. Among all registered voters surveyed, the former vice president’s lead expanded to 9 points — 51 percent to 42 percent.

Biden’s support is also somewhat firmer than Trump’s. Forty-five percent of likely voters and 43 percent of registered voters say they are certain to vote for him, while 41 percent of likely voters and 37 percent of all registered voters say they will definitely vote to reelect the president.

The state of the race hasn’t changed much since the Democratic and Republican national conventions last month. A poll from Monmouth fielded before the Democratic convention found Biden with a 51-41 percent national lead over Trump among registered voters, suggesting that neither candidate picked up or lost significant support.

Still, the Monmouth poll is the latest national survey showing Biden leading Trump outside the margin of error nationally, even as the race tightens in key battleground states that will ultimately decide the outcome of the presidential election. 

The Monmouth poll underscores the potential for voter distrust in the election’s eventual outcome. While most voters — 61 percent — say that they are at least somewhat certain the November election will be conducted fairly and accurately, more than one-third — 37 percent — expressed reservations about its trustworthiness. 

Voters are also more suspicious of Trump’s willingness to cheat in order to win the November election than they are of Biden’s. A slim majority of respondents — 52 percent — believe that the president’s campaign is at least somewhat likely to cheat if necessary, compared to 39 percent who said as much about Biden’s campaign. 

That distrust is most pronounced among Biden’s and Trump’s most committed supporters. Seventy-eight percent of firm Trump voters said they expect Biden to cheat if necessary to win the election. Among Biden’s firmest backers, 91 percent said they believe Trump will cheat if he has to. 

The Monmouth University poll is based on telephone interviews with 758 registered voters nationwide. It has a margin of sampling error of 3.6 percentage points.