Rasmussen: Biden leads Trump by 12 points nationally

Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump by 12 points in a new national survey from Rasmussen, the conservative outlet that has historically found the race to be closer than other pollsters.

Among likely voters, Biden takes 52 percent support in the latest Rasmussen survey, compared to 40 percent for Trump.

Trump’s collapse in the Rasmussen poll is significant because the president has often pointed to the survey as an example of how he was performing stronger than other polls give him credit for. Biden is bolstered in the latest survey by an 18-point advantage among independent voters. 

The past three Rasmussen polls have found Biden stretch his lead from 1 point to 8 points to 12 points over the course of a period that included the first presidential debate, Trump’s nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, and the president falling ill with the coronavirus.

In that time, Trump’s job approval rating has fallen from 53 percent to 44 percent. 

Biden’s advantage in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls has gone from 6.1 points to 9.4 points in less than two weeks, the largest gap in more than three months. 

Trump lost the national popular vote by about 2 points in 2016. Analysts say he could lose by about 4 points nationally and still squeeze out a victory in the Electoral College. 

However, Biden in recent weeks has also grown his lead in the key battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona. Florida and North Carolina remain toss-ups, as do states Trump won easily in 2016, such as Ohio, Iowa, Georgia and Texas.

The Rasmussen survey of 2,500 likely voters was conducted between Sept. 30 and Oct. 6 and has a 2 percentage point margin of error.