Former Vice President Joe Biden has gained the edge over President Trump in Georgia, according to a new Monmouth University poll that shows the Democratic presidential nominee with a 5-point lead in the state.
With less than a week to go before Election Day, the poll shows Biden garnering 50 percent support among registered voters in the Peach State, while Trump trails at 45 percent. Biden’s support remains unchanged under different likely voter turnout models, while Trump’s ticks up to 46 percent in a high-turnout model and 48 percent in a low-turnout model.
The poll shows a slight upward movement for Biden since a Monmouth poll released in September found him notching 46 percent support in Georgia to Trump’s 47 percent.
Biden’s current lead is not statistically significant, and he now faces the challenge of turning out less engaged voters who haven’t yet cast their ballots. But the poll suggests that the former vice president has the momentum in Georgia heading into the final days of the campaign.
A loss for Trump in Georgia would be a major blow to his reelection bid. A Democratic presidential candidate hasn’t carried Georgia since 1992, and Trump won the state in 2016 by a 5-point margin.
But the state’s rapidly changing demographics and an influx of new residents in the Atlanta area combined with Democrat Stacey Abrams’s near win in Georgia’s 2018 gubernatorial race have fueled Democrats’ belief that the state is now in play.
Biden has seen his standing there improve in recent months and has begun making a more aggressive play for the state’s 16 electoral votes. On Tuesday, he traveled to Warm Springs, Ga., a rural town far from the Democratic stronghold of Atlanta.
Democrats have also taken the lead in Georgia’s two closely watched Senate races, according to the Monmouth poll. In the state’s regularly scheduled Senate election, Democrat Jon Ossoff now leads Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) 49 percent to 46 percent. The university’s September poll showed Perdue with a 6-point lead over Ossoff.
In the special election for former Sen. Johnny Isakson’s (R-Ga.) seat, Democrat Raphael Warnock garners 41 percent support, up 20 points from September. Meanwhile, his two main Republican opponents, Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) and Rep. Doug Collins (R-Ga.), captured 21 percent and 18 percent support, respectively.
Under Georgia state rules, if no candidate manages to pass the 50 percent threshold in the special election, the two top vote-getters will head to a runoff, which would take place early next year.
The poll makes clear how Warnock has benefited from the competition between Loeffler and Collins, who have fought one another over their conservative credentials and loyalty to Trump. In turn, Warnock has so far received little attention from his GOP opponents.
“The fight for a spot in the runoff has gotten nastier between the two GOP candidates. And the main beneficiary appears to be the Democrat,” Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said.
The Monmouth poll is based on responses from 504 registered voters in Georgia gathered from Oct. 23-27. It has a margin of sampling error of 4.4 percentage points.