Kelly leads in all potential head-to-heads of Arizona Senate race: poll

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) is leading in head-to-head match-ups with all of his potential Republican challengers in the Arizona Senate race, according to a new poll released Thursday.

The astronaut-turned-senator is seeking reelection in 2022 for a full Senate term. He was elected in 2020 to serve out the remaining term of the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who died of brain cancer.

Republicans seeking to challenge Kelly include Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich, chief operating officer at Thiel Capital Blake Masters, founder of solar power company Depcom Power Jim Lamon and Retired Maj. Gen. Michael “Mick” McGuire.

In a head-to-head match-up between Kelly and Brnovich, Kelly leads 43 percent to the attorney general’s 39 percent, according to a OH Predictive Insights survey. Kelly received 44 percent to McGuire’s 37 percent; 43 percent when paired against Lamon, who took in 36 percent; and 44 percent of versus Masters’s 35 percent.

The polling firm noted that although Kelly did not receive more than 45 percent among any of the head-to-head match-ups, 47 percent of voters think favorably of the senator versus 43 percent who think unfavorably of him.

“Evidently, Kelly is attempting to keep a low profile in an off-year while his opponents try to build up name recognition — a strategy that seems to be working, at least for now,” Mike Noble, OHPI’s chief of research, said in a statement.

Cook Political Report rated Kelly’s seat as “lean Democrat” in its Senate race ratings in July, along with three others — Sens. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.). 

Kelly’s race will be watched especially closely because Arizona was among a handful of swing states that President Biden won in 2020. A recent audit conducted by Cyber Ninjas confirmed Biden’s win in Maricopa County despite former President Trump and others who have continued to question the results of the last presidential election.