Former Clinton adviser: Summer employment, inflation numbers key to midterms

An ex-adviser to former President Clinton said employment figures and inflation numbers over the summer will be key to determining how the Democratic Party fares in the upcoming midterm elections.

Doug Sosnik, who worked with Clinton for six years, wrote in a memo obtained by Politico that “the condition of the economy” will most likely determine how well Democrats fare in next year’s races.

He laid out three economic measures that he says are “key” to the outcome for Democrats in the midterm elections — inflation, employment and GDP growth — arguing that those three barometers “most accurately gauge the strength of the economy and impact how voters think about the future.”

“It is important to keep an eye on actions the Federal Reserve takes in response to these economic trends,” Sosnik added.

The former Clinton adviser said that views ahead of elections are “formed by how people feel about the current direction of the country and their daily lives,” noting that those feelings typically “harden” at the end of the summer and in the lead up to voting in the fall.

He said the “single best snapshot” of the country’s mood on the economy ahead of the midterm elections will be the release of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence data for June and July, which are set to be released on July 15 and Aug. 12, respectively.

Sosnik also pointed to getting COVID-19 under control and the impending ruling on the Supreme Court case of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which looks at abortion in Mississippi, but emphasized that the economy will likely be the most important issue.

Sosnik’s memo comes as lawmakers in Washington look ahead to the 2022 midterm elections, when Democrats are looking to grow their majorities in Congress and Republicans are vying to take control of both chambers. 

Republicans need to secure five seats to flip the lower chamber. Sosnik said Republicans are favored to flip the House next year because of historical patterns and the reapportionment process.

Democrats also hold a razor-thin majority currently in a 50-50 Senate. 

The former Clinton adviser also outlined what he called “five widely held assumptions” about the 2020 presidential election and this year’s off-year elections that proved to be false.

The list included that former President Trump’s win in 2016 was an aberration; that demography is destiny which is good for Democrats; that a higher turnout is always good for Democrats; that the Trump presidency realigned the suburbs with the Democratic Party; and that Trump pushed independents to the Democratic Party.