Five things to watch at CPAC

When Republican activists, elected officials and political devotees descend upon Orlando, Fla., this week for the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), the star of the show is once again expected to be former President Trump.

But the conference could also shed some light on a few of the biggest questions and dilemmas facing the modern conservative movement and the GOP, including whether Trump can maintain his vise-like grip over the party and where its most devoted members stand ahead of the 2022 midterm elections and the 2024 presidential race.

Here are five things to watch when CPAC kicks off this week.

Can Trump present a forward-looking vision?

When Trump takes the stage at CPAC on Saturday night, he’s expected to lay out “his vision for America.” At least that’s according to the conference’s organizers.

What remains to be seen is whether Trump will show any kind of willingness to move on from his 2020 loss to President Biden and his baseless claim that he was robbed of victory by widespread voter fraud.

While his most ardent supporters have firmly embraced those claims, many Republicans — including some of Trump’s allies — have both publicly and privately expressed a desire for a new message, especially as the party looks to take back control of Congress this year.

CPAC is already set to feature a handful of other potential 2024 Republican presidential candidates, like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has managed to repurpose key parts of Trump’s “America First” message. And for conservatives after a forward-looking vision, those would-be candidates may prove tempting.

How do 2024 Republicans navigate Trump?

Trump remains the only prospective Republican candidate to publicly indicate his interest in a bid for the White House in 2024. But several others are also seen as potential contenders — and a handful of them are set to speak at CPAC this week.

Among them are DeSantis, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). The conference gives would-be presidential hopefuls a high-profile opportunity to address current and former elected officials, writers, activists and other conservatives.

But Trump isn’t one to cede the spotlight and believes that the 2024 GOP nomination should be his for the taking should he mount another bid for the presidency. That puts the other prospective contenders in something of an awkward position: showing off their leadership chops without angering the former president.

And while several potential 2024 candidates have already said that they will not run if Trump does, others — most notably DeSantis — have so far avoided addressing the matter directly.

Does the Trump-DeSantis feud materialize?

Trump has been eyeing DeSantis warily for months, privately expressing frustration that the Florida governor hasn’t publicly pledged not to seek the GOP presidential nod in 2024 if Trump decides to make another run for the White House.

While the two men have publicly sought to tamp down reports of the simmering tensions, Trump has already taken a few thinly veiled shots at DeSantis, whose political rise he takes credit for.

In January, for instance, Trump criticized “gutless” politicians who refuse to publicly disclose whether they have received a COVID-19 booster shot — a remark widely seen as being directed at DeSantis, who has repeatedly declined to reveal his booster status.

Republicans say there’s little appetite for a blowup between the two, especially given that DeSantis is facing reelection this year. Nevertheless, Trump isn’t one to pull any punches, and it’s worth watching whether his frustrations make their way out into the open during CPAC.

What will the straw poll tell us about 2024?

When it comes to CPAC’s annual straw poll, there are two things to keep in mind: the group of activists and conservative devotees that the conference tends to attract aren’t necessarily representative of the Republican electorate as a whole, and straw polls aren’t scientific.

Still, the straw poll will likely offer some hint as to where some of the most conservative Republicans — including many of Trump’s most ardent supporters — stand ahead of the 2024 nominating contest.

The straw poll conducted at last year’s conference found Trump as the heavy favorite for the 2024 nomination among attendees, while DeSantis trailed in a distant second place. But that same straw poll also found that only about two-thirds of attendees — 68 percent — wanted Trump to run again in 2024.

This year’s straw poll could offer a bit more insight into just how firm Trump’s grip over the GOP — and the conservative grassroots in particular — remains.

What’s the message on Ukraine?

With the crisis in Ukraine turning into a full-blown war, it’s hard to imagine that Russia’s incursion into the former Soviet republic won’t emerge as a major topic of discussion at CPAC.

But as the U.S. and its allies move to impose penalties on Russia, the GOP response to the crisis isn’t necessarily a unified one, and it remains to be seen how those differences play out at CPAC.

Some Republicans, like Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), who’s slated to speak at the conference on Friday, have urged the Biden administration to take tougher action against Russia, arguing that incremental economic sanctions won’t be enough to deter Moscow.

Meanwhile, other Republicans, like Ohio Senate candidate J.D. Vance, have taken a more lax approach to the crisis. 

“I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another,” Vance, who’s set to be at CPAC on Saturday, said in a recent podcast interview.

While Republicans have largely settled on a strategy of blaming Biden for the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the diverging takes on the crisis hint at a larger divide among conservatives: whether the U.S. should use its influence to deter a possible conflict or adhere to Trump’s more isolationist “America First” approach.