Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, where we’ll be tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox each week leading up to November’s election.
Today we’re looking at Democrats’ search for a campaign reset amid polling showing a tenuous hold on Congress, as well as a bloody primary fight in Ohio.
Email us tips and feedback: Max Greenwood (mgreenwood@digital-staging.thehill.com), Julia Manchester (jmanchester@digital-staging.thehill.com), Tal Axelrod (taxelrod@digital-staging.thehill.com) and Mychael Schnell (mschnell@digital-staging.thehill.com).
Democrats hone their midterm message
Democrats put their heads together last weekend for what many in the party hoped would serve as a reset ahead of the midterms.
House Democrats held their annual issues conference in Philadelphia to plot a path toward limiting their losses, even if polls show keeping the majority remains a herculean task.
Democrats at the confab said they think touting their legislative accomplishments, including last year’s bipartisan infrastructure package and the $1.9 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill, could be an effective communications strategy.
“We have incumbents and candidates that can win in tough districts,” Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (N.Y.), the head of the Democrats’ campaign arm, said Friday. “And our argument will be that if you give us another two years, we’ll keep working for you and your family. The other side will keep working for themselves.”
President Biden hit similar notes in an address to a Democratic National Committee (DNC) meeting in Washington.
“Let’s be clear: When America’s recovery was flat on its back and the economy was flat on its back, it was the Democrats — without a single Republican vote — that brought us back,” he said of the stimulus plan.
But, but, but: Russia’s bloody invasion of Ukraine is sucking up much of the oxygen at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue and on Americans’ television screens, and is helping fuel a rise in gasoline prices, ensuring inflation frustrations remain at the fore.
That could hinder Democrats’ ability to sustain a consistent message, which they desperately need to do in the face of a disadvantage in polling of a generic ballot and widespread assumptions that the House will flip this year.
THE COUNTDOWN
237 days until the 2022 midterm elections
Ohio GOP frontrunner takes hits
Ohio investment banker Mike Gibbons has shot to the top of the state’s GOP Senate primary. Now comes the hard part.
Three consecutive polls have shown Gibbons topping his main rivals, including former state Treasurer Josh Mandel, “Hillbilly Elegy” author JD Vance and former Ohio GOP Chair Jane Timken.
Operatives in the state largely attribute that lead to more than $11 million in ad spending, over $3 million of which has yet to air.
Bombs away: Heavy is the head that wears the crown, and Gibbons is already starting to take incoming fire with his new frontrunner status.
The New York Times published a piece on Tuesday detailing derogatory comments Gibbons made in 2013 toward Asian people, citing the book “The Bell Curve,” which itself has been criticized as being racist.
“It was astounding to me how much they studied, how they were incredibly bright, but they memorized formulas,” Gibbons said, according to The Times. “And when we ran into a word problem — and you know, I think this is a function of the educational track they put them on — they got lost in the weeds.”
“They’re very good at copying,” Gibbons added.
Gibbons’s campaign defended itself, insisting that Gibbons was only discussing the differences between American and Asian education systems.
On top of that, The Columbus Dispatch unearthed a comment Gibbons made last month urging people to vote and seemingly laying the blame for Republicans’ dual losses in Georgia Senate runoffs last year at the feet of Donald Trump, which could irk the former president.
“Even if we think there might be some shenanigans going on, we need to vote,” Gibbons said in Paulding County last month. “That’s what happened in Georgia. Somebody said, ‘Don’t vote because it’s fixed,’ and we lost two Senate seats.”
Gibbons’s campaign denied he was referencing Trump, telling The Hill he was talking about lawyer and conspiracy theorist Lin Wood and that “Like President Trump, Mike is a businessman and he has the courage and backbone to push for what is right.”
2024 WATCH
Speaking of Trump, the former president hinted that former Vice President Mike Pence would not make a return as his running mate if he runs in 2024.
The two men had a falling out after Pence bucked Trump’s pressure on Jan. 6, 2021, to overturn the results of the Electoral College.
Trump has repeatedly bashed Pence over the decision and said in an interview with The Washington Examiner published Wednesday that “I don’t think the people would accept” having Pence as his running mate again.
“Mike and I had a great relationship except for the very important factor that took place at the end. We had a very good relationship,” Trump said. “I haven’t spoken to him in a long time.”
Pence recently told Republicans that Trump was “wrong” in his belief that the vice president has the power to overturn election results and that doing so would be “un-American.”
AD WATCH
Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black (R) is out with a scathing ad highlighting allegations against former NFL and University of Georgia football player Herschel Walker, as the two duke it out for the GOP nomination to represent Georgia in the U.S. Senate. The two-minute spot published on a website dubbed “RealHerschel.com” lays out threats that Walker, the frontrunner in the race, allegedly directed at his ex-wife, a mistress, a cheerleader and police.
“He threatened to kill women. He threatened to kill cops. After the violence, the abuse, the stalking, the death threats, Herschel Walker still has not been forthright with the people of Georgia — not about his violent behavior or the threats he has made against women and police,” a narrator says in the ad. “So we have to wonder: how many more women are out there? And what stories might they tell? Now, ask yourself, are you still thinking about voting for Herschel Walker?”
Walker has also been the subject of scrutiny after questioning the theory of evolution by citing the existence of apes. In comments last week, the GOP candidate said “think about this: we have an evolution that is — we’ve gotten so intelligent that if that is still true, why are there still apes?”
Walker remains the favorite to win the GOP nomination.
POLL WATCH
Biden v. Trump take two: While the midterm elections may be next on the docket for American politics, new polling is peeking ahead to the 2024 presidential race for early indications of what the upcoming battle for the White House may look like. In a March survey of registered voters, The Wall Street Journal found that Biden and Trump are tied in a hypothetical 2024 match-up — both pulled in 45 percent support. Biden has said he plans to run if in good health and Trump has not formally announced a campaign, but all signs are pointing in the direction of a third bid for the White House.
The Biden 2024 debate: The electorate, however, is not convinced that Biden, 79, will run for a second term — 52 percent of those polled by the Journal said they don’t think the president will run for reelection, compared to 29 percent who said he will. Nineteen percent said they remain undecided. Among Democrats, 41 percent said they believe Biden will vie for another term and 32 percent said he will not, with 26 percent remaining unsure.
That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you next week.