Concerns about N.Y. Gov. Paterson raise questions on the issue of endorsements

President Barack Obama’s recent meddling in the New York governor’s
race is setting off another round of will-he-or-won’t-he when it comes
to the president’s endorsement habits.

Empire State Gov. David Paterson (D) stepped on to the national stage Sunday morning on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” where David Gregory tried to press Paterson on exactly what was
contained in the message from the Obama administration, which reportedly urged him not to run.

{mosads}“I’m blind, but I’m not oblivious,” Paterson said. “I realize that
there are people who don’t want me to run. I’ve never gotten an
explicit indication authorized from the White House that I shouldn’t
run.”

Pressed further, Paterson acknowledged the White House has
passed along concerns about his lack of popularity, but he said that he
won’t be deterred.

“They certainly sent a message that they have
concerns, and I appreciate that,” he said. “But let me tell you, at the
outset, I am running for governor in 2010. I don’t think that this is
an issue other than for the people of New York to decide.”

But when it comes to the biggest primaries in the country, Paterson’s is just one where Obama’s support could be a huge factor. The president has also backed two incumbent senators – Michael Bennet (Colo.) and Arlen Specter (Pa.) – who face primaries, as well.

The question is: Who’s next in line for the president’s blessing?

The Hill looks at the top seven Democratic primary candidates who could benefit from Obama’s endorsement:

Illinois state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias

Obama’s old Senate seat is up for a full term in 2010, and a close friend is the establishment favorite for the Democratic nomination. But that doesn’t make this an easy call. While Giannoulias is a noted basketball buddy of the president, his personal baggage and the presence of a black primary opponent could make endorsing him a risky proposition. Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Robinson Jackson got a big boost recently when EMILY’s List endorsed her candidacy, and she could be formidable in a Democratic primary by virtue of a Chicago base and the support of the black community. Obama could take a significant bite out of both with his endorsement, and his home-state support could be pivotal in what figures to be a tough open-seat race in the general election. The primary is just more than four months away, so keep a close eye on this one in the coming weeks.

Rep. Steve Cohen (Tenn.)

This is another campaign where race looms large. As the lone white member of Congress in a majority-black district, Cohen it appears will perpetually face a black primary challenger. He was very public about his dismay last year when Obama sat out his primary with attorney Nikki Tinker. It was even more painful because Obama endorsed another white Democratic incumbent facing a black primary challenger in Rep. John Barrow (D-Ga.). The asymmetry of that situation could put pressure on Obama to back Cohen this time over former Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton. On the other hand, Cohen easily defeated Tinker by a four-to-one margin without Obama’s help, so there might not be the same sense of urgency in 2010.

Rep. Paul Kanjorski (Pa.)

Unlike Cohen’s seat, Kanjorski’s could be vulnerable to takeover next year. And as with Barrow, Obama’s endorsement could serve to actually help the party keep the seat in the general election. Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien filed a statement of candidacy this month to primary Kanjorski, who won last year’s general election by just more than three points. The incumbent’s role as chairman of the House Financial Services subcommittee on capital markets could make him a valuable ally in the coming months as Democrats take up banking reform.

Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher

Fisher is the Democratic establishment favorite in Ohio’s open Senate race, but a potentially tough primary with another statewide official continues to be a drain on his resources. Though Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner is getting destroyed in the early fundraising battle, she trails by single digits in early polling. With former Rep. Rob Portman raising big money on the Republican side, Obama’s endorsement of Fisher could help Democrats save some firepower for the general election.

Rep. Carolyn Kilpatrick (Mich.)

No current member of Congress performed as poorly in their renomination fight as Kilpatrick did last year, and she figures to have another tough race on her hands again in 2010. The former Congressional Black Caucus chairwoman, like Cohen, was left out to dry by Obama. She didn’t fair nearly as well, though, taking 39 percent of the vote in a three-candidate field. Don’t expect Obama’s endorsement this time either, because Kilpatrick is still associated with her son Kwame’s conviction on felony charges during his time as Detroit mayor. Those issues were much fresher in people’s minds in 2008, but they continue to haunt her. Other CBC members who could face primaries would be much easier for Obama to back, including Reps. Ed Towns (N.Y.), Donna Edwards (Md.) and Hank Johnson (Ga.).

Rep. Kendrick Meek (Fla.)

Meek faces a steep uphill battle in Florida’s open Senate race, where he would likely face Gov. Charlie Crist (R), but first he first faces a potential primary from Rep. Corrine Brown. There’s no indication yet that Brown will definitely run or even that she could provide much of a challenge for Meek, who has turned in strong fundraising reports. But recognizing Meek early on as the anointed candidate could help him set up the kind of organization he would need to upset Crist. He’s got a good start, but he still trails by between 20 and 30 points in most polls.

Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway

Conway is also an establishment favorite, but he has yet to hit it out of the park in his Senate primary against Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo. Mongiardo, the 2004 nominee for the same seat, led Conway in two polls conducted last month, and his name recognition from that race helps give him an early edge among Democratic primary voters. Republican Secretary of State Trey Grayson looks as though he will enter the general election as a decent favorite, so Democrats might want to get their house in order sooner than later. On the other hand, Obama’s endorsement would likely be a general-election liability, as he garnered just a 34 percent approval rating in the state a Research 2000 poll last month.