Taming the Wild West is ‘critical’ to Richardson’s primary strategy

If New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson becomes the Democratic presidential nominee in 2008, his playbook no doubt will read like a version of “How the West Was Won.”

Richardson’s campaign sees the prevalence of Western states on Super Tuesday, along with early-voting Nevada, as a calendar that could propel the governor to a victory that looks like a long shot to most analysts.

{mosads}“Western Democrats, particularly Democratic governors, have shown they can win the West, and we’re the only ones,” campaign manager Dave Contarino told The Hill.

Contarino acknowledged that next year’s loaded Super Tuesday, which now includes Arizona, Utah, Oklahoma, New Mexico and the grand prize of California, is at the core of the campaign’s strategy to win the nomination.

Contarino said his team knows it needs to build momentum ahead of the second round, momentum it only can get from making respectable showings in Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. He said polls indicate support for Richardson is starting to materialize in those early states.

Recent polls have shown Richardson moving up in Iowa and New Hampshire, to third or close to third place. The campaign pointed to another poll this week that shows the governor surpassing former Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) in Arizona.
While Richardson has been gaining some traction in Iowa and New Hampshire, his ace may prove to be Nevada, which is holding an early caucus for the first time.

Contarino said the campaign has an extensive ground operation in the state, and it is planning to play hard there.

“Our strategy is gaining momentum, and then coming West,” Contarino said.

The larger the states, the more expensive the media markets, and the Richardson campaign acknowledges it doesn’t have the resources of Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) or Barack Obama (D-Ill.).

“So much of it depends on the money and what they have to spend,” a Republican pollster, Margaret Kenski, said.

Kenski, who is based in Tucson, Ariz., said she views Richardson as a top-tier candidate, and the heavy Western influence on the primary season is just the kind of good fortune that might make Richardson the nominee.

“Timing is everything,” Kenski said.

Richardson’s strength in the region is largely due to his embrace of so-called Western issues such as energy and the environment and his moderate to conservative stances on issues like gun control, Kenski said.

“I think he understands that peculiar brand of libertarian populism that affects the Western states,” she said.

Kenski added that she thinks many Western voters may be unaware that Richardson is Hispanic, and that the campaign can parlay his heritage into a tremendous advantage.

Richardson consultant Steve Murphy disputed the conventional wisdom that massive amounts of money will be necessary to perform well in the second round or primaries.

Murphy noted that one of Sen. John Kerry’s (D-Mass.) biggest fundraising days was the day after he won the Iowa caucuses in 2004. A strong showing in Iowa will provide the Richardson campaign with a similar kind of shot in the arm, Murphy said.

Then on to Nevada, where Murphy said the campaign’s organization will be extensive and trained in the way of the caucus system.

Like Iowa, “[Nevada is] going to take a lot of on-the-ground organization, and that’s something we’ve been focused on from the beginning,” Murphy said.

Next comes New Hampshire, where the campaign says it is moving into a strong position, and into “what is essentially a Western primary,” Murphy said.

At that point, the campaign envisions Richardson will be viewed as “the primary challenger to probably Hillary Clinton.”

While Murphy conceded his campaign won’t be able to match the financial resources of Clinton once it gets to the second round, he said it will have organizations on the ground and some ads on the air in the Western states before the Iowa caucuses.

“Obviously the West is critical to us,” Murphy said. “But it’s also a huge opportunity.”

Kenski said Nevada might be the key to any boost Richardson hopes to gain.

Hypothetically, if Edwards wins Iowa and Clinton wins New Hampshire, then a win or strong showing in Nevada would be crucial to garnering media attention and having a chance to compete in the West, Kenski said.

“A win in Nevada would certainly get a lot of attention,” Kenski said. “I don’t know that it’s make-or-break, but it helps.”

With the Democratic nomination being held in Colorado and recent Democratic gubernatorial wins in the region, a number of Democratic strategists have started to view Western states as the Democratic counterpart to the South for Republicans.

Arizona, Utah, Oklahoma and New Mexico all voted for President Bush in 2004.

But New Mexico was a squeaker, and Bush beat Kerry there by only 6,000 votes.

For a Democrat to compete for the region’s electoral votes, he or she will need to be familiar with Western issues, Contarino said.

“It’s hard to see, particularly if a Northeasterner is nominated, how you win without [the Western states],” Contarino said.

If Richardson’s quest falls short, that kind of logic might just be what lands him the No. 2 spot on the Democratic ticket.