Lessons from Illinois: There are no absolutes

If Tuesday’s primary in Illinois taught us anything, it’s that in 2010, no single rule will hold true across the board. 

There were anti-establishment votes, yes. But there were pro-establishment votes too. There were some conservative uprisings, yes. But they fizzled in other cases.

Mostly, Tuesday reminded us that every race is unique, and we can’t apply the lessons of Doug Hoffman or Scott Brown to the many races where the dynamics appear similar.

{mosads}The same conservative base that executed a coup d’etat of the GOP nomination in New York and helped fund Brown’s late surge largely yawned at the chance to take down Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) in his Senate primary. They had their target in Kirk and a clear alternative in Patrick Hughes, and they passed.

 The Democratic Party also had a chance to take down an incumbent governor who was Rod Blagojevich’s (!) lieutenant, but it doesn’t appear to have done it, either. Gov. Pat Quinn (D) led by 7,000 votes with 99 percent of precincts in Wednesday night. He was declaring victory and took a congratulatory call from President Barack Obama, though State Comptroller Dan Hynes wasn’t conceding.

 The situation with Alexi Giannoulias is a little more complicated. His 39-34 win over an outsider, David Hoffman, was mostly that close because of some late problems with the Giannoulias family bank. Before that, Giannoulias looked pretty safe as the de facto “establishment” candidate.

 On the other hand, insurgent candidates won a couple GOP primaries in the House, including taking down Ethan Hastert, the son of former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.).

 Hastert’s loss combined the best of both worlds; he was seen as both the definition of an establishment candidate and the more centrist candidate in the race. State Sen. Randy Hultgren wound up having just enough money to take him down, and the three factors converged.

 It’s hard to draw many conclusions from the jumbled Republican governor’s primary, which like the Democratic race was still undecided Wednesday. So many candidates meant so many dynamics at play, and the winner — likely either state Sen. Bill Brady or state Sen. Kirk Dillard — will have won with just more than 20 percent of the vote.

 — A.B.

Here comes the cavalry

Former Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff has brought in some big-name Washington consultants to help him wrest the Democratic nomination from Sen. Michael Bennet.

 His campaign announced this week that Democratic strategist Joe Trippi and pollster Celinda Lake will join the team as consultants. Additionally, TV-friendly strategists Pat Caddell and Liz Chadderon have been brought on.

The move could cost him — literally.Those type of names usually charge a high fee for their services. Romanoff’s campaign has some $500,000 in the bank, about $3 million less than Bennet, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) reports.

 Meanwhile, Bennet is relying on the guidance of consultants from the Denver-based RBI Strategies & Research, which some say could give him an advantage over consultants who look good on paper.

“The issues in Colorado are so localized that it really is good to have someone who knows the landscape,” opined one Colorado strategist, who noted that during the 2008 presidential race, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) “really stepped in it” on water rights when campaigning in the Centennial State.

 “There’s a reason why [Interior Secretary] Ken Salazar started his career as a water attorney,” the strategist said. “These are some issues that can really get you into trouble.”

 Speaking of McCain, his campaign takes the opposite approach from Romanoff when hiring staff. He recently brought on Brian Rogers, who was a top spokesman on his White House effort, to serve as the communications director of his Senate reelection bid. The campaign didn’t formally announce the move, however. One aide for McCain said they never do: It’s all about the candidate, not his staff or consultants.

 — S.J.M.

Hultgren overcomes Young Gun program

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has taken the unusual step of placing multiple candidates from some primaries into its Young Guns program.

 The primary to face Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.) wasn’t one of them.

 State Sen. Randy Hultgren’s surprise victory over Young Gun participant Ethan Hastert not only dealt the Hastert legacy a blow, but it also leaves the NRCC with a candidate that it hadn’t deemed worthy of its program for congressional challengers.

 It isn’t unusual for a candidate who is not supported by his party to win a major primary; it happened in several cases for Democrats in 2006. But when the committee begins helping multiple candidates in some primaries, and an outsider candidate defeats one of them, that doesn’t reflect well on the program or the party.

 An NRCC spokesman said Hultgren was focused solely on his district and not the Young Guns program. It also sounds like his fundraising came up short of the NRCC’s goals.

 “Now that Sen. Hultgren is the Republican nominee, his campaign is going to make meeting our rigorous benchmarks a priority and do everything they can to see that Bill Foster is retired in November,” NRCC spokesman Tom Erickson said.

 We’ll see if there are more Hultgrens out there in the coming months.

— A.B.