In Oregon’s Senate primary, Dems mirror national debate

The Democratic primary in Oregon’s U.S. Senate race, where a Harvard-educated activist is challenging a candidate with establishment backing and a longer history of accomplishments, can seem eerily familiar.

Steve Novick, the outsider, and Jeff Merkley, the state House Speaker, both think they can take down two-term Sen. Gordon Smith (R) and help bring change to Washington. Their differences echo those of their party’s leading presidential candidates, Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.), in that they are largely over tone rather than policy differences.

Novick, trying to claim the “change” mantle, could benefit from what happens in the fight between Clinton and Obama.

“We’ve got to see what happens in the presidential race,” said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist. “If Obama is cruising toward victory it’s possible people would be endorsing that message” of change.

Merkley has touted his legislative experience and endorsements by Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D), the AFL-CIO and the American Federation of Teachers. He also received donations from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), which recruited him to run. Novick, however, believes that his Internet-fueled campaign and his out-of-the-box thinking will help him prevail.

This week, Novick was the first candidate to air a television ad, one that pokes fun at his height — he’s 4-foot-9 — to show that he’s different than the average Washington politician. After Obama’s win in the Iowa caucuses, he said that voters want change, not endorsements, inevitability or politics as usual.

“I don’t want to be in a position 20 years from now and see the country going to hell in a handbasket because I didn’t have the guts to challenge Gordon Smith,” Novick said when asked why he’s running.

Smith is seen as one of the most vulnerable GOP incumbents in the Senate in a year in which Democrats also hope to knock off incumbents in Minnesota, Maine and New Hampshire and win open seats in Virginia and New Mexico. What makes the Oregon race unique is that in the other states, Democrats were able to get high-profile candidates to run.

The Oregon Democratic candidates still have to introduce themselves to voters. Tim Hibbits, who polls for the Portland Oregonian, said that surveys taken now would be worthless. “Merkley is the Speaker of the House, but that hasn’t been a steppingstone for higher office in the past,” he said. “While Steve Novick is a known activist, he isn’t known to the public generally.”

In an October SurveyUSA poll, 67 percent of voters said they weren’t familiar with Merkley, and 71 percent said they were unfamiliar with Novick. Hibbits said those numbers won’t change significantly until the May primary approaches, unless the candidates regularly run television ads.

When voters do take a closer look at them, Merkley and Novick should benefit from an atmosphere that favors Democrats in a Democratic state, said Hibbits, who called Smith a slight favorite.

“People are beginning to get more nervous about the economy, about inflation and the cost of getting from point A to point B, in terms of gasoline,” he said. “Republicans can win here, but it’s tough, and you look at the broader climate and it’s tough.”

Oregon Democrats have already begun painting Smith as someone who supported the Iraq war and only voiced doubts about it as his reelection race approached. They’ve also noted his 2005 vote for a bill that would have allowed drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, a possible liability in a forested state where the environment is often an issue.

“The conditions create the possibility for a Democratic win,” Sabato said. “That makes activists take their choices seriously in a primary.”

Still, Smith holds a substantial money advantage over both Democrats. He’s raised $7 million and has $4.4 million on hand. Thanks to his war chest and his endorsements, Merkley should win over Novick and would have a great shot at beating Smith, Sabato said.

In the primary, Merkley, who began running in August, has the money advantage. He’s raised $913,000 in total, with about $528,000 on hand. The DSCC, though it hasn’t publicly endorsed Merkley, donated $93,090 to his campaign last fall.

Novick, who has been running since last January, has raised approximately $541,000, with $293,000 on hand. On ActBlue.com, the national fundraising website for Democratic candidates, Novick has raised about $284,000 — more than double Merkley’s ActBlue total.

Novick, who graduated from Harvard Law School when he was 21 and was born without fibulas, has touted his history of fighting for regular Americans while campaigning. He sued corporate polluters while working for the U.S. Department of Justice and led a campaign against the Oregon Lottery for spending too much on video poker machines.

If elected to the Senate, Novick promises to work on closing the growing income gap by pushing for a more progressive tax system, he said. He added that he would support federal measures to address global warming before it destroys farms and coastal cities.

Merkley said that voters looking to replace an incumbent want someone with experience. “They want to see that the person they’re voting for has a public record of leadership, has the life experience to bring to bear” in public service, he said.

Merkley worked in the Department of Defense in 1982 as a Presidential Management Fellow focusing on arms treaty verification and military technology safeguards. As House Speaker, he led a bipartisan effort to cap interest rates on predatory payday loans at 36 percent, down from an average of 528 percent for short-term loans.

If he gets to Washington, Merkley said, his priorities will be to end the Iraq war, increase healthcare coverage and enact an energy policy that ends the country’s dependence on foreign oil.