Questions surrounding the timing of Hastert’s resignation spark confusion

Rep. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) announced Thursday he is resigning before the end of the year.

But exactly when he will step down is the bigger question, one that is creating a great deal of confusion for the candidates looking to fill his seat and for the Illinois state Board of Elections.

{mosads}The announcement exasperated Board officials, who had already walked reporters through the process for filling the former Speaker’s seat when he first announced in August his intentions to step down.

Now that Hastert has indicated his resignation is imminent, he will have to send a letter to Illinois Gov. Rob Blagojevich (D) announcing he is leaving office. Blagojevich will then have five days to tell the counties in Hastert’s district when the special elections would take place, which must occur between 115 to 120 days after the resignation is official.

Sources have indicated that could happen as soon as late November or early December.

Without a date certain, however, state officials and candidates for Hastert’s seat are left to wonder when they will be running for a special primary, a regular primary or a special general election.

Most believe Hastert will leave office around the first of December and Blagojevich will set the special primary for the same day as the regular primary, which has been moved to Feb. 5.

To set separate election dates would be costly and discourage turnout, sources said. But scheduling the special primary on the same day as the regular primary has its own wrinkles.

For example, two different candidates from the same party could win one of the two elections. The winner of the special primary would then have to run a shortened campaign for the special general election. If that lawmaker won the special general contest, he or she would serve until January 2009, when the winner of the regular general in November was sworn in.

The situation is similar to what happened after Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas) resigned in April 2006. Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs won the special election but lost to Rep. Nick Lampson (D) in the general election. That meant her tenure in Congress lasted only a few months.

Hill sources said that such a scenario is less likely, however, if the two primaries are held on the same day. Voters would likely vote for the same candidate twice instead of splitting their votes between two different candidates from the same party.

But without a date certain, anything is possible. State officials are bemoaning the logistical and administrative nightmares that come with some of the far-fetched scenarios that could play out as a Democratic governor considers ways to put a Democrat in a seat long held by Republicans.

There is some concern in Republican circles that the governor will try to fast-track the special primary and hold the special general on the same day as the regular primary. Analysts believe that if the state holds the special general on the same day that both Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and front-runner Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) are on the ticket and driving Democratic turnout, the chances of a Democrat winning the special congressional election would drastically improve.

Despite all the confusion, the prevailing belief is that, for the sake of logistics, the two primaries will occur on the same day.

“I think the counties would prefer that,” said one former Hastert aide. “[Otherwise] you could have three elections in 90 days.”

For their part, the candidates from both parties insist they are going ahead as planned, running for a Feb. 5 primary.
“We’re going full speed ahead no matter what happens,” state Sen. Chris Lauzen (R) said. “We’re focused on the objective we know.”

Bill Pascoe, a spokesman for Jim Oberweis (R), said the candidate “has been focused on the Feb. 5 primary from day one.”

“We don’t anticipate changing that plan,” Pascoe said, adding that the campaign will “adjust as necessary” for a special election.

In the event of a special primary before the Feb. 5 primary, Pascoe said, the condensed schedule would not change the campaign’s theme.

“You’re not going to see different messaging,” Pascoe said. “You might see different timing on the rollout of that messaging.”

Tom Bowen, campaign manager for Democratic candidate Bill Foster, agreed that the date will change little for the campaign.

“Whether it’s a special election or a general election, it doesn’t change the campaign Bill Foster’s running,” Bowen said.