Last debate pre-Iowa offers Clinton chance to blunt Obama momentum

Ahead of the last big Democratic debate before the Iowa caucuses, Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) has the momentum, and it’s up to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) to stop him, analysts say.

Thursday’s Democratic debate in Des Moines, sponsored by The Des Moines Register, might be Clinton’s last big chance to take advantage of earned media and halt Obama’s rising numbers.

But in a state that has traditionally punished candidates for going negative, Clinton and Obama both face challenges as they seek to gain an advantage over one another without appearing to attack their chief rival.

“[Clinton] has to frame it as being between her and Obama, but she has got to do it in a constructive way,” said Dennis Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University.

Goldford cautioned that there is “almost never a last anything until caucus day itself.” But he added that the last Iowa debate might be the campaigns’ last chance at a “focused free media event that will dominate press and observer discussions.”

Democratic strategist Donnie Fowler said Clinton’s challenges are not unlike those she has faced since the narrative turned after the Philadelphia debate at the end of October.

“Clinton has to not look mean. She has to not look desperate,” Fowler said. “She has to continue to look like the candidate that’s ready to be president on day one.

“She can draw contrasts without looking mean,” he said. “She can draw [Obama] down without looking desperate. And she’s eminently capable of doing that.”

Fowler added that it will be difficult for Clinton “to stop the momentum with a single debate.”
“She [has] got to kind of hope that the momentum runs out,” he said.

Fowler said avoiding the appearance of attacking out of desperation is crucial for a campaign that was long predicated on an argument of inevitability.

“You can really break the bandwagon down if you start to look desperate and not confident,” he said.

Fowler also said Obama has to be careful not to rest on any sense of momentum and return to the defensive or complacent position that he showed earlier in the year, prompting many supporters to question his toughness.

“Obama made the mistake of trying to nice his way to the nomination,” Fowler said. “The caucuses are tied. He’s not ahead. This is not the time for either one of these candidates to play defense.”

Democratic strategist Jenny Backus said the debate represents the candidates’ first version of the “closing arguments” they will present to try and convince caucus-goers to support them.

Backus said Clinton will likely engage Obama, and do so in a way that she has proved comfortable with in past debates.

“I think they should have confidence more in the game that they’re playing,” Backus said. “My guess is she’s going to go after [Obama] the way she does, methodically, doing her homework, trying to trap him in some kind of policy question.”

Backus said it is more important for Clinton to project confidence, experience and preparedness.

“I don’t think she needs to deal any death blows to [Obama],” Backus said. “She doesn’t need to act like she’s nervous, because I don’t think she is.”

Most analysts interviewed for this article agreed that Thursday’s debate will be important not only because it comes close to the end of the process, but because in a field where the leading candidates aren’t prone to mistakes, an error could be costly now.

“There are not necessarily make-or-break moments unless there’s some huge mistake that ends up in a TV ad,” Backus said.

Democratic strategist Steve Elmendorf, who is supporting Clinton’s bid, said he continues to believe the race in Iowa is a tie between Obama and Clinton.

Elmendorf said Thursday’s debate is one of the most important because it is “probably the first debate that real voters in Iowa are paying attention [to].” Elmendorf said that factor is a plus for Clinton, given that past debates have mostly helped her candidacy.

But Elmendorf cautioned that it is not necessary for anyone to try and deliver a knock-out blow, and he anticipates Clinton will do what she has for most of the year, which is try to “give people confidence that she has the strength and experience to be president.”

“I don’t think she’s got to knock anybody out, and I don’t think anybody’s going to knock her out,” Elmendorf said.

That said, Elmendorf added he does expect the candidates to engage each other much as they have in recent days and weeks.

“Campaigns have rhythms, and you’re at the point where there’s going to be more differentiating between the candidates,” he said. “I think each candidate has got to figure out how to highlight those differences.”