Analysis: After Clinton win, unpredictability replaces inevitability

MANCHESTER, N.H. – If Iowa was about change, New Hampshire was about experience. Or perhaps redemption. What is clear is that the Democratic race now joins the GOP field in its unpredictability.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (N.Y.) shocking win over Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) here Tuesday night means Obama, who enjoyed frontrunner status for only a  few days, is no longer the inevitable nominee.

{mosads}On the other hand, despite spending most of last year being considered the frontrunner, Clinton’s chances are just as up in the air as Obama’s.

They have both shown that they can turn out voters, with participation records being broken in New Hampshire and Iowa.

For both campaigns, their respective victories might provide a blueprint for how to proceed, but the next round of states, Nevada and South Carolina, are just as different as Iowa and New Hampshire are.

Nevada’s largest union is expected to endorse Obama this week, and with the conventional wisdom set that Obama would win handily in the Granite State, his next step to the nomination looked secure.

The culinary workers endorsement could still propel him to victory there, but it would be hard to name a frontrunner right now.

Then it’s on to South Carolina where black voters will likely make the difference.

That bloc appeared to be breaking toward Obama, their fears about his electability assuaged by his big win in Iowa. Clinton’s New Hampshire win might cause those concerns to quickly return.

The Clinton campaign did not appear to be confident of a victory in New Hampshire, with senior aides working hard to dampen expectations over the last five days. In addition, reports filtered out throughout the day Tuesday that Clinton was considering a staff shakeup or thinking about skipping Nevada and South Carolina to focus on the Feb. 5 states.

The staff question might remain, but Clinton does not likely have a choice anymore when it comes to the next round of states.

What will be interesting to watch is how much the campaigns adjust after the first two states.

Obama said publicly after Iowa that he was not going to change strategy, vowing instead to stick with what works.

Clinton on the other hand went hard on the offensive, pushing her “talk vs. action” line of criticisms on Obama and unleashing former President Bill Clinton’s, who strongly criticized Obama and the media’s coverage of him.

Early theories about her victory in New Hampshire though centered around Clinton’s emotional response to a question in Portsmouth, N.H., Monday morning. The senator choked up and appeared teary eyed as she talked about her love of the country.

“Over the last week, I listened to you and, in the process, I found my own voice,” Clinton said Tuesday night.

After seeing exit polls showing that women voters broke more for Clinton than Obama here, that emotional element might have been the difference.

A number of analysts suggested in recent days that Clinton had been too tightly controlled, and as a result, she was not making a connection with voters.

“Let Hillary be Hillary” will likely be a recurring theme as the contests move forward.

And after Obama said Tuesday night that he is “still fired up and ready to go,” the most predictable thing about the Democratic race is that the contests will go on.