As speculation builds around what Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will do next year, many Democrats say the party’s surprisingly strong performance in this week’s midterms yields a simple answer: Whatever she wants.
Pelosi, who has served as the Democratic leader for the past two decades, has previously pledged to withdraw from the top of the party at the end of this term, clearing space for a younger crop of ambitious lawmakers to climb into the leadership ranks. And a number of Democrats intend to hold her to the promise.
Yet the unexpectedly strong turn for House Democrats in Tuesday’s elections has strengthened Pelosi’s hand as questions churn around her political fate, according to sources on and off of Capitol Hill. The party’s good night, many Democrats said afterwards, means Pelosi can remain the top leader — if she so chooses.
“She’s in the power position. We overperformed, and the wave never materialized,” said Ashley Etienne, Pelosi’s former communications director. “So, the choice is hers to make.”
While Republicans remain the favorites to control the lower chamber next year, Democrats stunned the political world Tuesday by clinging to dozens of seats in tough battleground districts and deflecting the type of midterm wave that routinely hammers the party of the incumbent president.
The development has buoyed Democrats, who have been on the ropes for most of the cycle amid a volatile economy, and frustrated Republicans who were hoping a considerable majority would help them neutralize President Biden through the second half of his first term.
No single figure was more crucial to the Democrats’ defense than Pelosi, who had blanketed the country over the course of the cycle showering enormous amounts of campaign cash — from a massive haul of roughly $276 million raised — onto vulnerable lawmakers.
As GOP leaders spent Wednesday sniping over what went wrong with their campaign strategy, Democrats were coming around to a more unified sentiment: Pelosi is now in a place to decide her own future, on her own terms.
“She will be asked to come back, and she will stay if she wants,” said a second former leadership aide, who spoke anonymously to discuss a sensitive topic.
A Democratic lawmaker delivered a similar assessment, noting that Pelosi’s ability to raise money for the party — more than $1.2 billion since she entered leadership — is unprecedented in Congress, and gives her outsized leverage to decide her own political fate.
“She earned her ticket to stay 10 years ago when she was raising more money than any Speaker had ever raised before,” the lawmaker said on background. “In respect for all that she has been to the Democratic Caucus and how she has led … she needs to be able to make the decision when she wants to leave.”
Pelosi is famously guarded about her future, and this year has been no exception.
The Speaker has repeatedly deflected questions about whether she’ll seek to remain in power next year. And that reticence has continued even in the wake of the violent assault on her husband, Paul Pelosi, late last month.
The Speaker has said only that her decision “will be affected” by the attack. But that’s only fueled more conjecture: Will she bow out of Congress to join her recovering husband? Or stay in place to send the message that no act of political violence can push her out?
“I’m sure that her decision is going to weigh the impacts on her family,” said the lawmaker, “but that would not be a reason for her to bail out.”
Heading into Tuesday’s elections, Democrats were not optimistic about their chances.
They have razor-thin margins in both chambers. Historical trends have predicted that the party of the president routinely loses seats in the midterms, frequently in wave numbers. Biden’s approval numbers have been below 50 percent for more than a year. And economic anxieties, particularly surrounding inflation and gas prices, were expected to overshadow other issues on voters’ minds to the detriment of the Democrats, who control all levers of power in Washington.
However, Democrats defied most of the predictions for Tuesday, securing victories in battleground districts across the country and denying Republicans a huge majority if the House does change hands after all the outstanding races are decided.
On Wednesday — a day when Republicans hoped to be popping champagne, launching leadership races and sharpening plans to confront Biden on countless key issues next year — they were forced instead to ponder the reasons for their lackluster performance.
All of that is helping Pelosi.
If Republicans had prevailed clearly and quickly Tuesday night, there would have been immediate pressure on the Speaker to announce her intentions for next year. Instead, she announced she was leaving the country for a climate summit in Egypt.
Pelosi is not guaranteed a leadership spot in the next Congress. The younger, restless lawmakers who want the chance to join the party brass will likely revolt if she seeks another term at the top. But the race for leader in the minority is very different from the contest for Speaker, requiring support from a majority of the party, not a majority of the full House — a much lower bar.
Whatever Pelosi decides, her supporters and detractors are in agreement on one thing: No one will know until she wants them to.
“This really solidifies her legacy as the most accomplished Speaker in U.S. history, by all measures — all measures. There’s no question,” Etienne said. “Two things I know about Pelosi though, the decision will be made on her terms, and she’s going to keep us guessing.”
Mychael Schnell contributed.
Updated 11:54 a.m.