Republican leaders are racing this week to secure GOP support for legislation combining steep spending cuts with a debt ceiling hike — their official opening bid in the high-stakes standoff with President Biden over how to prevent a government default this summer.
The vote is the first real test in the nascent Speakership of Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who won the gavel in January after promising conservatives he’d fight tooth and nail to curb government spending and is now under intense pressure from his right flank to hold that line, even at risk of an economy-shaking default.
Heading into the weekend, Republican leaders appeared to lack the 218 votes needed to move the bill through the House, where several GOP lawmakers — some conservative, some moderate — are fighting for last-minute changes.
Republican leaders were whipping through the weekend, and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) told Politico on Monday that leaders were not making changes to the bill. The Hill has reached out to Emmer for comment.
McCarthy is vowing to stage the vote this week while voicing confidence that he’ll find the support to send it to the Senate.
“We will hold a vote this week, and we will pass it,” McCarthy said in an interview on Fox News’s “Sunday Morning Futures” program. He stopped short, however, of saying the support is there already.
The House Rules Committee is set to consider the bill on Tuesday afternoon. Lawmakers could make last-minute changes to the legislation during the meeting before sending the bill to the full chamber for a vote.
The reluctant Republicans occupy several distinct camps.
Some conservatives are grumbling that certain provisions of the bill, like new work requirements for recipients of federal benefits, don’t go far enough. Some moderates fear those same provisions go too far. And a third group is proud to note that they’ve never voted for a debt-ceiling hike in all their years in Congress, and they seem reluctant to tarnish that record.
“I voted against it under Trump, I’m sure I could vote against raising the debt ceiling under Biden,” Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) told reporters before the GOP proposal was released.
After the proposal was unveiled, Burchett said he was undecided.
The clashing interests have left McCarthy and his leadership team scrambling to find a delicate balance that can unite the various camps and win 218 votes. With Democrats expected to oppose the package unanimously, GOP leaders can afford to lose only four Republican defections — a fifth would sink the bill and weaken McCarthy’s hand in his demand for spending cuts Biden has rejected.
Highlighting McCarthy’s dilemma, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) said Monday that she’s leaning against the legislation for at least two reasons: It’s not aggressive enough when it comes to cutting deficit spending, and it’s too aggressive in its approach to eliminating funds for green energy projects like solar power, which are abundant in her state.
“I want to figure out what kind of adverse impact it might have on the state of South Carolina,” she said on CNN’s “This Morning” program.
Much of the early resistance from Republicans relates to proposed changes to work requirements for government benefits like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as food stamps. Under the GOP proposal, able-bodied adult recipients younger than 56 who do not have dependents would be required to work, look for work or volunteer for at least 20 hours a week. Conservatives want to hike the threshold to 30 hours, but many moderates oppose the increase — a disagreement that will test McCarthy’s powers of persuasion and the conference’s willingness to compromise.
“I think Republicans understand that we’re not going to get every single thing we ask,” said Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), head of the Main Street Republicans.
McCarthy’s office did not respond Monday to questions about when the vote is scheduled or whether GOP leaders have altered the initial draft to satisfy critics.
Unveiled last week, the Republicans’ proposal would pare federal discretionary spending — the part of the budget excluding mandatory programs like Social Security and Medicare — to fiscal 2022 levels, while capping increases to those programs at 1 percent annually. It also slashes some programs adopted by Biden, including efforts to fight climate change, expand health coverage, eliminate college debt and empower the IRS to retrieve unpaid taxes.
Over 10 years, the package would save the government $4.5 trillion, according to GOP estimates.
In return, Republicans will agree to increase the nation’s borrowing limit by $1.5 trillion or through March 2024, whichever comes first.
Many Republicans have been adamant that defense dollars would be shielded from any cuts to discretionary funding. But the proposed caps in the bill don’t contain clear guardrails protecting the Pentagon budget.
In the days since McCarthy unveiled the bill, Republicans have expressed confidence the proposal would still allow for an increase in defense dollars while curbing spending elsewhere. But not all Republicans agree with that view.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) told The Hill last week the proposal would allow a chance for a reduction in defense dollars compared to the previous year.
“It could or couldn’t, right? That’s the whole point,” he said, before making a comparison to how households handle their own budgeting, adding: “Say this person makes $100,000. Now you gotta figure what to do with it, and that’s all we’re trying to say is like, how are you going to spend the money?”
Others planning to vote for the bill pushed back on the idea that the legislative text would allow for cuts to the defense budget, however.
Speaking on Roy’s comments, House Rules Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said that “theoretically, that’s correct” — but he quickly added, “not with my vote.”
“We’re not cutting defense as dangerous as the world is,” he told The Hill. “We’re going to increase defense, but we’re going to be pretty tough in other areas. So I think that’s the general feeling in the conference.”
Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), chairman of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense, who said last week that the country doesn’t “need to cut our national security,” also said he plans to vote for the bill. But he indicated to reporters that appropriators could have a tougher job increasing defense dollars this year if it’s paid for by trimming from other programs.
“It’s not gonna be easy. That’s for sure,” Calvert said.