GOP Rep. Rosendale weighing bid to challenge Tester in Montana

Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.), a second-term conservative firebrand, is taking steps toward launching a challenge against Democratic Sen. Jon Tester (Mont.) in the 2024 elections, according to a number of sources familiar with the situation.

Rosendale has not confirmed his candidacy, which would set up a rematch after he unsuccessfully ran against Tester in 2018.

But a number of sources, including a fellow GOP lawmaker, said Rosendale is already on a fundraising tear and they expect him to enter the race soon.

“It’s clear he’s considering a run,” said Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Utah).

“I’m pretty certain he’s running for Senate,” a second source, who asked to speak anonymously to discuss a sensitive topic, told The Hill. “He’s raising money like a crazy guy.”

“He’s strongly considering it,” echoed a third source.

The news of Rosendale weighing a bid for Senate was first reported by Politico.

Approached for comment in the Capitol on Friday, Rosendale stopped short of confirming the speculation surrounding his challenge to Tester.

But he eagerly highlighted a new poll — out this week from Public Policy Polling — that puts him at the top of a potential primary matchup against Tim Sheehy, a Montana-based businessman who has reportedly been encouraged to run by Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

In the hypothetical contest, Rosendale beats Sheehy, 64 percent to 10 percent.

“I’ve been very consistent on the fact that Jon does not represent the vast majority of the people across the state of Montana, and has not for quite some time. I am convinced that he will be replaced in ‘24 and as the time goes we will certainly see who the people of Montana want to replace him with,” Rosendale told The Hill.

“There was a PPP poll that came out just yesterday… you can’t ignore that,” he continued. “That’s the Montana people speaking and saying what, you know, who they are considering at least to represent them in the Senate after ‘24. We continue to watch everything.”

Tester is seen as one of the most vulnerable Democratic senators up for reelection next year. Montana is among the GOP’s top targets as Republicans try to pick off enough seats to claim the majority.

Rosendale, a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, has drawn headlines in recent months with his appetite to break from GOP leadership. During January’s drawn-out Speaker’s race, Rosendale never threw his support behind Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), going as far as to nominate another candidate on one ballot.

Earlier this month, Rosendale was one of 11 conservatives who revolted on the House floor in retaliation for the debt limit bill crafted by McCarthy and President Biden, a move that left the chamber in a standstill for nearly a week.

Some Republicans said Rosendale’s iconoclastic persona would be a welcome change for an upper chamber known for its stodgy traditions.  

“I think Matt would make a really good senator, actually, It would be fun,” the third source said. “He would shake the Senate up.”

While that conservative track-record is sure to heighten Rosendale’s chances of winning the GOP primary, where hard-line voters tend to participate disproportionately, many Republicans also fear it will alienate moderates and independents in the general election, lending an advantage to Tester and the Democrats.  

It’s unclear if Montana’s other House Republican, Rep. Ryan Zinke, will also throw his hat into the ring for the Senate.