House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is zeroing in on the Speaker gavel’s — but she’s not there yet.
The California Democrat, who was overwhelmingly nominated to become her party’s nominee for Speaker, has until Jan. 3 to lock down the 218 votes she needs on the House floor.
During the closed-door caucus vote, 203 Democrats voted for Pelosi, 32 members voted against her and three lawmakers left the ballot blank. One Pelosi supporter was absent.
{mosads}It’s a mystery, however, how many of these Democrats will continue to oppose Pelosi on the House floor, where their votes will be public. Pelosi needs a majority vote of the entire House to be elected Speaker.
That means she can afford 17 Democratic defections, and suggests she needs to flip 15 votes from the secret-ballot tally.
Both Pelosi and her allies have expressed confidence that the master voter counter will reach that goal before Jan. 3.
Another way to clinch the gavel is to convince critics to vote present or to not show up at all, which would lower the overall threshold needed to become Speaker.
Here is a look at where the Pelosi opposition stands.
The list of “yes” votes includes Democrats who were once seen as Pelosi “no” votes and does not include members who offered her public support ahead of the secret-ballot vote.
RECENT UPDATES: Rep.-elect Jason Crow, Rep.-elect Dean Phillips, Rep.-elect Haley Stevens
NO (18)
Rep.-elect Anthony Brindisi (N.Y.) — Brindisi is one of 16 Democrats who signed a letter calling for new House leadership ahead of the secret-ballot vote. He told The Hill after the vote that he would not back Pelosi or vote present.
Rep. Jim Cooper (Tenn.) — Cooper has voted against Pelosi on the floor in each of the past four cycles and is unlikely to shift in 2019.
Rep.-elect Jason Crow (Colo.) — Crow campaigned on bringing new leadership to Washington and promised to oppose Pelosi in caucus and on the House floor. He did not sign the letter calling for new leadership, but his office told a Colorado television outlet that he would not vote present on the floor.
Rep.-elect Joe Cunningham (S.C.) — Cunningham was a surprise winner in a deep-red district in South Carolina that Democrats may struggle to hold on to in 2020. He has told The Hill that he is a firm no on Pelosi. He signed the anti-Pelosi letter.
Rep. Bill Foster (Ill.) — While Foster signed the anti-Pelosi letter, he told reporters that there are “ongoing discussions” that could result in him supporting the California Democrat. He wants a clear succession plan from Pelosi.
Rep.-elect Jared Golden (Maine) — Golden told reporters he would not support Pelosi in the secret-ballot vote or on the House floor, but has not said whether he would be willing to vote present.
Rep. Ron Kind (Wis.) — Kind, who voted against Pelosi on the floor in 2016, did not sign the anti-Pelosi letter and has largely flown under the radar. But he told The Hill after the caucus vote that he has decided not to support the California Democrat on the floor.
Rep. Conor Lamb (Pa.) — Lamb, who won a surprising special election in a red pocket of Pennsylvania earlier this year, told The Hill would not support Pelosi or vote present on the House floor.
Rep.-elect Ben McAdams (Utah) — The Utah Democrat, who just narrowly edged out Republican Mia Love, signed the anti-Pelosi letter and told The Hill he would not support Pelosi or vote present on the floor.
Rep. Seth Moulton (Mass.) — Moulton has been a ringleader of the Pelosi rebels but came under criticism for his actions at a local town hall. He unsuccessfully sought negotiations with Pelosi over changes to the leadership team before the secret-ballot vote.
Rep. Ed Perlmutter (Colo.) — Perlmutter signed the anti-Pelosi letter, but signaled to The New York Times he could be open to supporting Pelosi if she outlines a clear succession plan. His office says he is in continued talks with the Democratic leader.
Rep. Kathleen Rice (N.Y.) — Rice spearheaded the letter calling for new leadership. She’s been one of the most vocal Pelosi opponents and has been used by Pelosi critics to counter those who say the opposition is coming just from white men in the caucus. Rice was one of just four Democrats to oppose Pelosi on the floor at the start of the current Congress.
Rep.-elect Max Rose (N.Y.) — Rose, who will represent a Republican-leaning district in Staten Island, told The Hill he is a firm “no” on Pelosi and has laughed off suggestions he might shift his views. He also signed the anti-Pelosi letter.
Rep. Tim Ryan (Ohio) — Ryan challenged Pelosi for the gavel in 2016, though he voted for her on the floor during the public vote. Ryan, Rice and Moulton unsuccessfully pushed Pelosi to publicly name an end-date for her Speakership.
Rep. Linda Sánchez (Calif.) — Sánchez, who is currently vice-chairwoman of the Democratic caucus, signed the anti-Pelosi letter and is not expected to support Pelosi on the floor. She made waves late last year when she called for new leadership, given that she serves on the team herself.
Rep. Kurt Schrader (Ore.) — Schrader signed the anti-Pelosi letter, and has made clear he doesn’t plan to support her on the floor.
Rep.-elect Abigail Spanberger (Va.) — Spanberger, a former CIA agent who toppled conservative Rep. Dave Brat, has consistently said she would not back Pelosi on the floor.
Rep. Filemon Vela (Texas) — Vela signed the anti-Pelosi letter and has made clear he doesn’t plan to support her on the floor.
UNCLEAR (8)
Rep.-elect Gil Cisneros (Calif.) — The newly elected congressman signed on to the letter calling for new leadership late. But he’s since suggested he might change his tune, telling CNN “we’ll see” in response to a question about the floor vote.
Rep. Jim Costa (Calif.) — Costa is a member of the Problem Solvers Caucus and said he voted “no” on the secret ballot, despite Pelosi agreeing to key rule reforms. Costa, however, said he is hopeful he’ll be able to work out a way to support her in January. Costa opposed Pelosi on the floor in 2011.
Rep.-elect Jeff Van Drew (N.J.) — Van Drew signed the anti-Pelosi letter, but told reporters that he hasn’t ruled out voting present and is still exploring his procedural options for the floor.
Rep.-elect Steven Horsford (Nev.) — As a congressman representing Nevada between 2013 and 2015, Horsford is the only incoming freshman who has worked directly with Pelosi on Capitol Hill. But he’s declined to say how he voted in the closed-door Speaker vote, and he’s being similarly tight-lipped about how he intends to vote on Jan. 3.
Rep.-elect Andy Kim (N.J.) — Kim, a former national security adviser in the Obama administration, voted against Pelosi during the caucus vote, but has not specified how he will vote on the House floor.
Rep.-elect Dean Phillips (Minn.) — Phillips called for a “new generation of leadership” on the campaign trail, but has declined to say how he voted on the secret ballot. His floor position remains unclear. Phillips stood on stage alongside Pelosi and several other Democrats when they unveiled a government-reform package that will be a top priority for their party next year.
Rep.-elect Mikie Sherrill (N.J.) — Sherrill’s campaign put out a brief statement saying she voted “no” in caucus, but was mum about the public vote in January.
Rep.-elect Elissa Slotkin (Mich.) — Slotkin, who was highly critical of Pelosi on the campaign trail, has dodged questions from reporters about what she will do on the House floor.
YES (4)
Rep. Marcia Fudge (Ohio) — Fudge was considering challenging Pelosi for the Speaker’s gavel. She ultimately decided not to run and agreed to support Pelosi after the Democratic leader vowed to resurrect a defunct subcommittee on elections and make Fudge the chairwoman.
Rep. Brian Higgins (N.Y.) — Higgins initially signed the anti-Pelosi letter, but pulled his name off the list when Pelosi agreed to prioritize infrastructure and Medicare expansion. Higgins has since been encouraging other detractors to cut deals with Pelosi.
Rep. Stephen Lynch (Mass.) — Lynch signed the anti-Pelosi letter and said he would oppose her on the floor, but he later issued a statement on Dec. 7 saying the Democratic leader has his full support and that she assured him that “priorities of average working families will be the priorities of the upcoming Congress.”
Rep.-elect Haley Stevens (Mich.) — Stevens, who voted against Pelosi in caucus and was critical of her on the campaign trail, told The Oakland Press that she would not vote against Pelosi on the floor.
If you have adds or changes to suggest for this list, please email mzanona@digital-staging.thehill.com or mlillis@digital-staging.thehill.com