Speaker Johnson: New York special election result ‘in no way a bellwether’ for fall

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is brushing off the GOP loss in the special election to replace former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), arguing that the race is “in no way a bellwether” for the November elections.

Former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) bested Republican Mazi Pilip in New York’s 3rd Congressional District Tuesday, picking up a seat for Democrats and further narrowing the GOP’s already slim House majority.

Democrats took a victory lap after the race was called, touting the results as proof that they can run a successful campaign even with immigration as the most important issue to voters. Johnson, however, urged his colleagues to pump the brakes on their celebrations.

“The result last night is not something, in my view, that Democrats should celebrate too much,” Johnson said at a press conference Wednesday morning. 

The Speaker pointed to Suozzi’s messaging on immigration and accused the Democrat of running “like a Republican.” He also noted that Suozzi has strong name recognition in the district, where he served for three terms before waging an unsuccessful bid for governor in 2022.

Johnson argued that while Pilip “ran a remarkable campaign,” she was “relatively unknown” and “had a very short runway.” He also cited the inclement weather in the district Tuesday.

“There are a lot of factors there. That is in no way a bellwether of what’s going to happen this fall,” Johnson said. “We are absolutely convinced.”

“New York three was what it was, but that has nothing to do on the efforts going forward,” he later added.

Suozzi’s victory on Long Island dealt a major blow to Johnson and House GOP leadership, which now have to contend with an even slimmer majority in the chamber. The breakdown in the House once Suozzi is sworn in will be 219-213, meaning Republicans will only be able to lose two GOP lawmakers on any party-line vote with full attendance.

Suozzi leaned into the issue of immigration on the campaign trail, which has surged as the top concern among voters this cycle. The New York Democrat called for stricter border security policies and he endorsed the border security deal a bipartisan group of senators reached earlier this month, which conservatives in both chambers ultimately thwarted.

Tuesday’s race marks another twist in the electoral history of New York’s 3rd District. President Biden won the Long Island area by 8.2 percentage points in 2020, then Santos won the district by 7.5 percentage points in 2022. The district, however, swung back to Democrats this year, with Suozzi defeating Pilip by 7.8 percentage points.