The already-rocky gambit to avert a government shutdown is the last legislative trial for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) before the November election, and it could have major implications for his political future.
Successfully enacting conservative priorities or extending funding into next year with the hopes of avoiding an end-of-year omnibus would be a major win for the Speaker, who has walked a tightrope since skyrocketing to the position last year.
But if his plans crumble, it could fuel criticism both from hard-line conservatives angry about his handling of fiscal matters and more moderate Republicans who question his strategy.
Further complicating the matter is former President Trump, with whom Johnson has worked to keep up a good relationship and whose support is critical if he wants to continue leading House Republicans next year.
Trump on Tuesday called to “CLOSE IT DOWN” and not move forward on a continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government past Sept. 30 if House Republicans “don’t get absolute assurances on Election Security.” Republicans have included a Trump-supported measure to require proof of citizenship to vote as part of the six-month CR, but the voting portion is a non-starter for Senate Democrats and the White House, who say noncitizen voting is already illegal and worry about burdening eligible voters.
There is little to no appetite among House Republicans to force a shutdown — which is widely viewed as a scenario that could harm GOP lawmakers during the height of election season.
“I understand the perils of a shutdown,” Johnson said earlier in the day. “I understand the risk, and we are going to do the right thing and we’re going to see what happens.”
But in responding to Trump’s post later, Johnson said Trump “is saying exactly what I have been saying, and that is we need assurances on election security, and to fund the government.”
The more difficult scenario is already looking likely.
A wave of Republicans — ranging from fiscal hawks opposed to any stopgap to defense hawks concerned about its effect on the military — announced opposition to Johnson’s CR play. A scheduled Wednesday vote on the measure appears likely to fail.
“This is about Speaker Johnson’s leadership ability. That’s what it’s all about,” said Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who unsuccessfully attempted to oust Johnson from his position earlier this year.
“What is speaker Johnson going to do? Is he willing to fight for this? And if he’s not willing to fight for it, why? Why would we vote for it?” Greene said.
Johnson told reporters Monday there is not a fallback plan if the stopgap package fails. But Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), chair of the House Appropriations Committee, said the Republicans “always have multiple, you know, things available” in the case of a failed play.
Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.), who is opposed to the continuing resolution because it extends funding he disagrees with, aimed to keep the focus on policy disagreements rather than leadership issues, but he still offered some critiques.
“I’ve not been impressed with what I’ve seen so far. I think that Speaker Johnson is a great person. He is a spiritually guided constitutional member. But what I see is a weakening in leadership,” Mills said. “I understand that he has one leg of the four-legged stool, if you will, and that he’s up against people like [House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)]. But the American people can accept us to fight and lose. They can’t accept us not to fight at all.”
It is a familiar position for Johnson and for the House GOP as a whole, which has been rocked by disputes over fiscal policy since the GOP took control of the chamber in 2023 — including an eerily familiar scenario that could foreshadow trouble for the Speaker.
The historic ouster of Johnson’s predecessor, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), came after McCarthy angered fiscal hawks by opting to extend government funding in a “clean” stopgap — a decision he made after a package that paired a funding extension with a border bill failed due to Republican opposition.
The hard-line conservative House Freedom Caucus had pushed for a six-month CR that included the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act. But now it is opposition from some Freedom Caucus members that is derailing the funding play.
That recurring dynamic of leadership trying the most conservative option, only for hard-line members to still oppose legislation, frustrates moderates.
“That’s the side of the party that’s kind of taking his legs out, so he tries to accommodate them, and then still gets hit by the same group,” one moderate House Republican told The Hill.
Johnson has said he plans to seek the Speakership again if Republicans retain control of the House.
When considering Johnson’s prospects of leading the House GOP next year, Republican lawmakers and senior Republican staff say the biggest factor will be whether Republicans can keep and grow their majority. But they also say they are keeping an eye on how he handles the Sept. 30 shutdown deadline.
To be sure, the funding fight may not be the biggest legislative factor for Republicans skeptical of Johnson’s leadership. Discontent with Johnson’s handling of funding issues earlier in the year and move to push through funding for Ukraine helped Greene to force a vote to oust him from the position in the spring, with Democrats coming to Johnson’s rescue to table the matter.
But the view from across the aisle is that Johnson’s CR move is linked to his leadership prospects.
“The problem he has is: To keep his job, he jeopardizes the majority. To keep the majority, he jeopardizes his job. And it’s because they can’t govern. That’s really the conundrum that he’s in,” Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) said.
However, one House Republican who has discussed strategy with Johnson insisted his support for the SAVE Act as part of the CR is based in his convictions, not his political standing.
“He’s making decisions based on what he believes is the best course of action, not because this is the best way for me to keep my job,” the GOP member said.
And Johnson himself has said he is acting out of principle.
“This is a conviction I feel deep in my heart,” Johnson said of his support for the SAVE Act in a Tuesday press conference.
And even those who have disagreed with Johnson’s play continue to give him grace for how he has tried to wrangle a razor-thin GOP majority.
“I didn’t agree with some of the actions that were taken at the time,” said Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Pa.), referencing Johnson’s early days. “But since then, I think he’s become more than battle-tested.”
Mychael Schnell and Mike Lillis contributed.