A growing number of House Republicans say they know how the current government funding drama ends: with a clean continuing resolution (CR) that kicks the shutdown deadline to after Election Day.
The question is how Congress arrives at that conclusion.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) scrapped plans for the House to vote on his conservative funding bill Wednesday when it became clear it didn’t have the GOP votes to pass, catapulting the conference back to square one with less than a month until the shutdown deadline.
Some Republicans are pushing Johnson to make another attempt at clearing a conservative funding bill, arguing that a successful effort could help strengthen the party’s hand in forthcoming bipartisan negotiations.
Muddying the waters, former President Trump is urging Republicans to vote against any short-term funding bill that does not secure “absolute assurances on Election Security.”
Privately, however, others are concluding that a bipartisan stopgap is inevitable, so it would be in the best interest to get it over with sooner rather than later.
“Bring a clean CR for 3 months and move on,” one moderate House Republican told The Hill.
Another House Republican told The Hill that “the only way we get out of this is a clean CR,” which would require Democratic support to pass.
“And if you can’t look in the mirror and just acknowledge that and get over it … you got bigger problems within yourself, and you’re not putting the country first,” they added. “I think it’s silly. … Every single time we pass something out of this body, and he [Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)] said he hasn’t put it on the floor, he’s held true to that promise, and he’s never put it on the floor. What is going to make this any different?”
Even those who may not be hoping for a short-term CR think it is the ultimate endgame.
“He’s probably going to have to do a clean, kick-it-past-the-election, at some point. So, it would be extremely short. There’d be no way for the Senate not to accept it, and it puts us then into a lame duck,” a third House Republican told The Hill.
Johnson announced Wednesday that he was pulling a scheduled vote on his opening bid to avert a government shutdown — which paired a six-month CR with a Trump-backed bill that would require proof of citizenship to vote — amid mounting opposition within his conference.
It was a dramatic reversal from his previous position.
Just 24 hours earlier, the Speaker was adamant that the House would weigh in on the package, even though enough Republican “no” votes had stacked up by then to sink the effort and in the face of Democratic opposition.
But hours before the vote, Johnson said he and his leadership team would take the weekend to “build consensus” around the legislation.
“We’re going to continue to work on this. The whip is going to do the hard work and build consensus. We’re going to work through the weekend on that,” Johnson said.
It is unclear whether GOP leaders can salvage the six-month CR and Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act package, which faced widespread opposition, including from hard-line conservatives, defense hawks and moderate Republicans.
Another option — as has been alluded to by Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a lead proponent of the stopgap gambit — could be a six-month CR without the SAVE Act attached. That would achieve conservatives’ goal of avoiding an end-of-year omnibus, and potentially set up a new Trump administration to enact more conservative funding priorities.
But the six-month timeline itself has faced plenty of opposition from both parties.
Defense hawks have voiced concerns about the effect of not increasing Pentagon spending for six months. It would also lock in spending levels higher than what many Republicans want until March of next year. And Democrats are pushing to complete the government funding process by the end of this calendar year.
Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, called for the leaders of the funding committees in both chambers to come to the bargaining table, while urging Republicans to abandon their go-it-alone strategy and begin crafting a bipartisan deal.
“It is past time for Chairman Tom Cole [(R-Okla.)], Chair Patty Murray [(D-Wash.)], Vice Chair Susan Collins [(R-Maine)], and I to begin good-faith negotiations on a continuing resolution that will keep government programs and services Americans depend on functioning while we complete our work on full-year funding bills before the end of the 118th Congress,” she said in a Wednesday statement.
Cole and Collins have pushed back on a six-month timeline as well. Speaking to reporters Tuesday, Cole said he thinks lawmakers should instead focus on getting their funding work finished “and try and do it as expeditiously as possible.”
“I personally think it’s not a good thing to give a new president — and we’re going to have a new president — an immediate fiscal crisis,” Cole said. “But again, that’s probably going to be up to the winner of the election, to be honest. If they want it, then Congress is always happy to pass the ball.”
Collins echoed that sentiment earlier this week, telling reporters she prefers a stopgap that ends in December.
“I think we should complete our work as soon as possible,” she said.
The longer Republicans take to coalesce around a strategy, the likelier a clean CR is, Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.) told reporters.
“And then you got the added influence of the former president, you know, basically advocating for a shutdown. So that complicates matters,” Womack said.
As the debate over government funding strategy drags on, Republicans are getting a sense of déjà vu.
A year ago, House Republicans failed to pass a partisan CR that included a GOP border bill because of GOP defections, forcing former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to pass a clean funding extension with the help of Democrats. The move contributed to a rebellion from eight GOP members that resulted in McCarthy’s ouster and, weeks later, Johnson’s installation as Speaker.
“A lot of the CR just weighs into the realities of having a very narrow margin in one house of Congress, while the White House and the Senate are controlled by the other party. So I don’t think any Speaker is going to have a greatly different outcome,” a GOP member said, adding that their expectation was a clean CR that passes with the help of Democrats.
Those disputes are part of why many House Republicans privately say a clean CR is the all-but-certain endgame.
“Senate passes a clean CR to Dec. 15. We adopt,” another moderate Republican told The Hill when asked what they think should come next in the funding process.
Even Roy, the lead sponsor of the SAVE Act, predicted Wednesday the process will end with a bipartisan CR, a nod to the realities of funding the government in a divided Washington where Republicans hold the slimmest of majorities in one chamber of Congress.
“The likelihood is we end up with a CR to December and leave town and go campaign,” Roy told conservative radio host Dana Loesch.
While some Republicans are coming to terms with the current dynamics, others still want to see the House try to clear a conservative funding bill to improve the party’s posture in negotiations down the road.
Roy, for his part, said Wednesday he still wants to see the CR-plus-SAVE Act hit the floor, despite its gloomy odds.
“Unfortunately, a handful of my colleagues, including some of my more conservative colleagues, didn’t like the idea of voting for the CR, so we don’t have the votes currently to get it done,” Roy said.
And other House Republicans argue that enough time exists between now and the Sept. 30 shutdown deadline — 10 legislative days — for the GOP conference to make another attempt at a conservative spending bill.
“I think we have some time. I think he should see if he can find a landing spot for House Republicans,” said the GOP member who requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive topic.
But when all is said and done, the GOP lawmaker predicted a clean stopgap into December.
“I’d like to see a deal before Christmas that then sets up the ability to have a bicameral negotiation after the election,” the House Republican said. “Johnson does not want to be jammed with an omnibus. And he was successful last year breaking it into two parts and finding consensus on that.”
A final House GOP member speculated that Johnson’s push for the conservative voting bill was never intended to be part of enacted legislation.
“I think the Speaker always knew CR [plus] Save Act wouldn’t likely pass the House and definitely wouldn’t pass the Senate but needed to be seen as trying and that he was always going to have to bring a clean CR,” the GOP member said in a text message.