Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) move to bring a clean, short-term government funding stopgap — his plan B after his first gambit failed — is upsetting conservative House Republicans, who will be key in deciding the top lawmaker’s fate as GOP leader next year.
The disappointment has, thus far, not bubbled up into a revolt, with hard-liners recognizing the difficult position Johnson is in balancing his razor-thin GOP majority, desire to avert a shutdown and goal of retaining an edge in the lower chamber this November.
But the members of the right flank are not shying away from voicing their discontent.
“It’s disappointing,” Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) said. “But unfortunately the surrender caucus came together to make sure we keep the status-quo plays going.”
When asked about repercussions on the postelection leadership races, however, Davidson held his fire, opting to wait and see how the ongoing funding fight and November elections pan out.
“We’ll see how it goes,” the Ohio Republican said. “We’re focused on making sure we grow our majority, and I wish we had a better way to keep the government functioning where we could get some sort of win, but we couldn’t get that play across the finish line.”
The lack of anger among hard-line conservatives could, in part, be attributed to the fact that Johnson’s current play call — a “clean” stopgap to Dec. 20 — was how the overwhelming number of House Republicans saw the current funding battle ending, whether they supported it or not.
In a letter to colleagues Sunday, Johnson said the “alternative plan” was required because “we fell a bit short of the goal line.”
Johnson’s opening salvo in the spending discussion paired a six-month stopgap with a bill to require proof of citizenship to vote — titled the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act — a package that could not clear the House due to opposition from Democrats and some Republicans.
The idea was to avoid an end-of-year omnibus while Democrats control the White House while also highlighting election security concerns — something former President Trump has pushed. But Republicans knew Democrats in the Senate and the White House would never accept their bill, and they were skeptical that, even if it did squeak through the House, subsequent negotiations would lead to any conservative wins.
Ultimately, opposition from Republicans — including hard-liners opposed to the funding levels and defense hawks concerned about the timeline’s impact at the Pentagon — tanked the gambit.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) dubbed it “failure theater.”
“That’s what we were always going to get,” he said of the narrow three-month stopgap. “It’s hard to be disappointed, I mean, if you had no expectations. … It’s just how this works.”
“He was never going to fight on anything,” Massie continued. “He wasn’t going to fight on [the SAVE Act]. They were going to drop that at the first sign of trouble. … I would say what he’s done is par for the course.”
Now, House Republicans are set to face the deadline that hard-liners wanted to avoid, jammed up against the Christmas holiday at the end of the 118th Congress. House GOP leadership aides, though, said the December stopgap date “does not necessarily mean we will be doing an omnibus in December,” forecasting another funding battle.
Johnson in his Sunday letter said the short-term stopgap is necessary “to prevent the Senate from jamming us with a bill loaded with billions in new spending and unrelated provisions.”
Despite the disappointment, it is unclear how much Johnson’s handling of this particular funding fight will weigh on the conservatives when Republicans set their leadership slate for the next Congress.
“I haven’t shied away from calling out Speaker Johnson when I think he needs to be called out. But I also try to remember he’s just a reflection of the conference,” said Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus. “He’s got a lot of people that want a lot of things, a lot of goodies to take home to the district, you know, a lot of passion projects that you know they’re interested in. And I know he’s trying to wrangle the group as much as possible.”
“He knows I’m disappointed,” Crane added.
Many Republicans, however, recognize that Johnson has been backed into a corner on funding measures, in part by the same hard-liners who refused to support his initial funding play.
Rep. Ben Cline (R-Va.), another Freedom Caucus member, said he’s “willing to listen” to Johnson’s funding plan, and lauded the Speaker’s efforts amid his difficult circumstances.
“I think the Republican conference recognizes that Speaker Johnson is doing a good job given the narrow margin and the challenges [of] the election, maintaining the House,” Cline said. “The Speaker’s very well-liked, very popular within the conference.”
Rep. Don Bacon, a centrist Republican from Nebraska, meanwhile, said he supported the Speaker.
“It’s the right thing; it’s all he’s got. He’s got to do it. He’s got no choice,” he said.
Johnson already survived an unsuccessful attempt to oust him from the Speakership earlier this year by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Massie, who were angry about how he handled spending issues, including funding for Ukraine.
Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) was removed from the top job almost a year ago following a similar situation: After House Republicans tanked their own partisan stopgap that included a GOP border bill, he relied on Democrats to avert a shutdown.
Johnson, to be sure, is not at risk of meeting the same fate. Members are eager to focus on campaigning in the lead-up to November and recognize that leadership races for the next Congress will occur shortly after the election.
“Entirely different situation,” said Rep. Nancy Mace (S.C.), one of the eight House Republicans who voted to oust McCarthy from the Speakership.
Still, even if Johnson is safe in the short term, his long-term prospects of remaining atop the House GOP conference are unclear.
Much of his future will be determined by whether Republicans keep control of the House. Johnson in his letter to colleagues Sunday stressed the importance of the election.
“From now until election day, I will continue with my tireless efforts and singular focus of growing our majority for the 119th Congress. It is my great honor to serve with you all in these historic days,” Johnson wrote. “The future of our exceptional nation directly depends upon our success, and I am confident that together we will prevail!”
A relatively in-the-weeds procedural dynamic could affect how the continuing resolution passes, serving as a signal from hard-liners to leadership.
The stopgap is set to come up under a regular “rule,” which sets parameters for debate on legislation, rather than under a fast-track process that requires bipartisan buy-in.
Moving measures under a rule is the preferred legislative procedure for conservatives who harp about regular order in the House, but it requires a procedural rule vote that is normally along party lines — a process that could pose problems for Johnson and his leadership team.
Conservatives in this Congress have often tanked procedural rule votes — preventing the House from debating legislation — as a form of protest against various measures. Keeping Republicans together on the procedural vote would be a welcome sign for Johnson.
But if there are enough Republican defections on the rule vote, Johnson could seek help from Democrats on the procedural vote — a rare occurrence, and one that would likely anger the hard-liners.
Another option Johnson has if Republicans cannot pass the rule is to fast-track the legislation under the suspension of the rules process, which needs two-thirds support for passage, requiring assistance from Democrats. But that, too, risks angering the conservatives.
Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, predicted that top Republicans would opt to bring the bill to the floor under suspension of the rules. The decision, however, will ultimately be up to House GOP leadership.
As the funding fight drags on and chatter begins to crop up about the looming leadership races, Republicans are urging their conference to remain focused on the current task at hand: averting a government shutdown and winning elections in November.
“As I sometimes say, one dumpster fire at a time, right? Let’s figure out what we got to do to fund government,” said Rep. Dusty Johnson (S.D.), chair of the solutions-oriented Republican Main Street Caucus. “Let’s go win the November elections. We can worry about that leadership stuff after.”