Exiting GOP bullish it will have full control of government soon

Republicans are leaving Washington projecting confidence about their chances of returning to the Capitol in November knowing they’ll have full control of government in 2025. 

Republicans in their final legislative days before heading home for the final weeks of a frantic campaign said they are confident the House GOP will retain its majority and that former President Trump, who is locked in a tight race with Vice President Harris, will emerge victorious.

If anything, Republicans are even more confident about their path to a Senate majority, given the difficult map for Democrats that has them defending several seats in states Trump is nearly certain to win.

“I’m very confident about this. I believe we’re going to keep and grow the House majority, win the Senate and win the White House as well, and we’re going to put Donald Trump back in the office,” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said during a press conference this week.

Such a result could dramatically change the life of House Republicans, giving them a better chance of actually turning legislation into law after nearly two years often filled with infighting.  

Johnson is already planning for that scenario, going as far as to game-plan an economic agenda that can glide through a GOP House and Senate and onto Trump’s desk.

But the sprint up until the election will not be without steep challenges.

And heading into the long preelection recess, Democrats are just as bullish about their chances of flipping the House — an optimism fueled by their stark fundraising advantage in the final weeks of the campaign. 

Their campaign arm is significantly outraising that of Republicans. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) raised $22.3 million in August compared to $9.7 million brought in that month for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), a swing-district first-term lawmaker, said he can feel the influx of Democratic cash in his race.

“They’re spending quite a bit of money in my district. I think that’s felt on the ground,” he said. “We feel we’re in a strong position.”

Democrats are responding to the GOP optimism with confidence of their own.

“In November, we will defeat this extreme dysfunctional House Republican majority,” Rep. Suzan DelBene (Wash.), head of the Democrats’ campaign arm, told reporters in the Capitol. “And we will get Congress back to work to defend our rights, our freedoms, our democracy and our future.” 

Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.) also voiced confidence, saying, “We’re going to win the House, and we’re going to win the presidency, but it’s not going to be an easy fight. It’s not won right now; it won’t be won until the final vote is cast. And so each one of us has to work like hell to win.”

Republicans are particularly eager to look for bright spots and toward the future after they have faced a brutal 21 months of infighting and dysfunction in the House.

Many of them are feeling dejected about deficit spending after they once again voted to extend government funding for three months, a move Johnson made after the GOP was unable to coalesce around an initial play intended to pressure Democrats.

Election forecasts from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ project Harris has a 55 percent chance of winning the presidency, while Republicans have a 57 percent chance of winning the House and 71 percent chance of winning the Senate.

A handful of races will determine control of the House, with many of the seats at stake in states that are not competitive on the presidential level, such as New York and California.

One of the GOP members, Rep. Marc Molinaro (N.Y.), is also expressing optimism.

“I think we’re going to grow the majority here in the House. We’ve got a number of places where we’re making good progress, and frankly, I do think we win the Senate and the White House,” Molinaro said. 

He also brushed off the fundraising gap among the Democratic and GOP committees.

“There’s historically been a bit of a fundraising gap. But listen, they have to spend tens of millions of dollars convincing people what residents and voters know just isn’t true. The economy is hard on middle-class families. The border has been wide open,” Molinaro said.

Republicans see the overall political environment as being more favorable in this cycle in House races than it was during the last presidential election cycle in 2020, when Republicans gained House seats despite losing the presidency.

538’s average of generic ballot polls — asking whether voters would prefer Republicans or Democrats in control of Congress — finds Democrats with a 2.2 percentage point advantage, down from a 7.3-point advantage in 2020.

There are, however, some doubts among House Republicans. Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) said earlier this month that he did not think the GOP would keep control of the House, in part because of dysfunction among House Republicans. 

Gonzales’s comments surprised many of his GOP colleagues, though, who said they vehemently disagreed with his assessment — and saw it as being unhelpful.

Even so, DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton pointed to Gonzales’s comments in response to the optimism coming from other Republicans.

“This is one of those super rare times where I would say Tony Gonzales is correct when he said Republicans are ‘going to lose the majority, and we’re going to lose it because of ourselves,’” Shelton told The Hill in a statement.

Recent DCCC battleground polling found that Republican favorability dropped 6 points since June, while Democratic net favorability remained consistent in that time frame.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) declined to make any predictions about how many seats Democrats might flip. But voters, he argued, have soured on a House GOP majority that clashed internally throughout the current Congress, struggling to pass basic bills like government funding while booting a Speaker from power for the first time in the nation’s history. And having Harris at the top of the ticket, he added, has heightened the Democrats’ chances of seizing power next year.

“We’re going to fight this battle on issues. It is certainly a positive thing that Kamala Harris is running a campaign that has excited, energized and inspired people all across the country, including in many of the congressional races that will determine the future of the House of Representatives,” Jeffries said. “Because if we don’t, then we can kiss our freedom goodbye.” 

“With only six [seats] we need to pick up, I think the odds are in our favor,” he added.