GOP beginning to jockey for post-election leadership slots

House GOP leadership elections are still one year away, but early jockeying has already begun behind the scenes with Republicans extremely bullish about winning back the majority in next year’s midterms.  

Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) are the favorites to be the next Speaker and majority leader, respectively, if the GOP can be successful in 2022. But the race for the next rung of leadership spots — including majority whip, GOP conference chair and the party’s campaign chief — could get crowded and much more competitive.  

While Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) is in line to become the next chairman of the influential House Financial Services Committee, he’s signaling to colleagues and reporters that he’s not ruling anything out and could make a bid for GOP whip instead.  

“It’s nice to have options,” McHenry told The Hill as he bounded down the steps of the Capitol.  

McHenry’s potential entry into the whip’s race could pit him against at least two others floated for the No. 3 leadership post: Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.), who succeeded McHenry as chief deputy whip in 2019, and Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), who is in his second stint as chairman of the House GOP campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).  

“McHenry is the odds-on favorite for whip,” said one GOP lawmaker who has been monitoring the shadow race.   

All three said they are completely focused on taking back the House in next year’s elections. Asked if he’ll fight to stay in leadership next term, Ferguson replied: “I can tell you where I don’t want to stay — in the minority.”   

Emmer is poised to have another good campaign cycle in 2022, given President Biden’s low approval ratings and the fact that the party in power typically loses a significant number of seats in a president’s first midterms. It would follow the 2020 cycle, when Emmer and the NRCC defied polls and conventional wisdom, helping Republicans unseat 14 incumbent Democrats and defend every single GOP incumbent. 

Like McHenry, Emmer isn’t taking anything off the table, including the possibility of a rare third term leading the NRCC, a demanding job that requires near-constant traveling, fundraising and media interviews.

“I was asked. All I said to my colleagues was I haven’t ruled that out,” Emmer told The Hill in a recent interview. “Here’s what I’ve looked at: I’ve looked at finishing what we started. We’ve got a job to do; we still have 12 months to go. People talking about what’s going to happen after that? That’s a mistake.” 

But if Emmer leaves the NRCC, other Republicans would be eager to succeed him in the 2024 cycle. They include two of his NRCC vice chairs: Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Ill.) and Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), who joined McCarthy’s leadership team this year as GOP conference secretary. 

Emmer also said it was “humbling” when told that Republicans have floated him for GOP whip but added that “all I’m thinking about is winning the majority.”  

Another possibility, GOP lawmakers said, is that Emmer runs for chairman of the Financial Services panel if McHenry can secure the GOP whip post. But to win that gavel, Emmer would need to leapfrog many more senior members of that prestigious panel.  

The sheer number of possible outcomes highlights just how unsettled the leadership field is, and also how many young, ambitious GOP pols — nearly all of them white men — are eager to climb the leadership ladder. Internal leadership elections will take place in the Capitol a couple weeks after the Nov. 8 midterms.

As chair of the conservative Republican Study Committee (RSC), Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) has been a regular on cable news and pumping out policy papers and talking points on everything from inflation and the supply chain crisis to China. He also saw his national profile grow when Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) blocked him from serving on the special Jan. 6 committee.

Banks, an ally of McCarthy and former President Trump, could run for GOP whip but is unlikely to challenge McHenry, an ally. Another option might be conference chair, given his messaging experience at the RSC. But sources close to the Afghanistan War veteran said Banks is focused on his work on the House Armed Services Committee. 

Rep. Mike Johnson, who followed Scalise from the Louisiana statehouse to Congress to RSC chairman to GOP leadership, is also looking for a promotion. As GOP conference vice chair, a natural next step would be conference chair, the No. 4 job in the majority, but that race could get crowded as well.  

“My objective here is to be of my highest and best use to my country, our cause and our conference. I have always supported the team and worked hard to help lead on substantive policy solutions, vision and principle,” Johnson told The Hill. “If my colleagues nominate me to continue in a leadership post, I will be honored to do so.” 

GOP Policy Chairman Gary Palmer (Ala.) said he’d also like to stay: “I want to be where I can do the most good.”  

As of now, it’s unclear if Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), the highest-ranking GOP woman on Capitol Hill, will fight to remain as conference chair for a second term. When the Trump loyalist ran to replace Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) in leadership in May, Stefanik promised skeptical conservatives she would only stay for one term, then run for chair of the House Education and Labor Committee.  

But Rep. Virginia Foxx (N.C.), the term-limited top Republican on the Education panel, has told colleagues she plans to seek a waiver from McCarthy and the Steering Committee to stay on for another term.  

“Let’s wait a little while and see what happens,” Foxx said with a smile when asked about her plans. 

If successful, Foxx’s move could give Stefanik an excuse to run again as conference chair. And handing Stefanik a second term would ensure that a woman would remain in one of the top GOP leadership spots. 

Other women in the GOP conference could also join McCarthy’s team. Rep. Jackie Walorski (Ind.), whom McCarthy named as the top Republican on the House Ethics Committee, has been mentioned as a possible leadership candidate. And 33-year-old Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) has injected youth, energy and biting criticism of the Biden administration into recent floor speeches and news conferences.  

“You can call it a number of things: Build Back broke, Build Back B.S., Biden’s bankruptcy blueprint,” Cammack said of Democrats’ Build Back Better bill. “But it doesn’t matter what you call it because it is still absolute crap.”