New polling from a left-leaning firm shows a majority of voters see a recent wave of campaign ads targeting transgender student-athletes and gender-affirming health care as “mean-spirited,” and the ads could be backfiring.
More than half of voters surveyed this month by Data For Progress said political attack ads targeting the trans community have gotten “out of hand” — including nearly a third of Republicans, whose candidates are largely responsible for the ads.
Just more than 60 percent of surveyed voters, including a majority of independents and 41 percent of Republicans, said it is “sad and shameful” for GOP candidates to make anti-LGBTQ rhetoric a part of their campaigns, according to the poll, which was released Thursday.
Former President Trump and Republicans in key House and Senate races have bet big on anti-transgender messaging in the final weeks of the election, pouring millions into political ads that paint their Democratic opponents as radical for supporting trans-inclusive policies.
“Crazy liberal Kamala is for they/them, President Trump is for you,” says one pro-Trump television ad that aired this month in battleground states.
A study released Thursday by Ground Media, a strategic communications group, found the ad yielded “no statistically significant shift” in voter choice, mobilization or likelihood to vote. It did, however, reduce public acceptance of trans people across nearly all demographics.
An ad campaign launched this year by Ground Media in partnership with GLAAD, an LGBTQ media advocacy group, advocates for broad support for transgender Americans and their families.
Transgender issues are among the least important issues driving voters to the ballot box, a recent Gallup poll found, and a similar focus on transgender athletes and health care in 2022 failed to translate to election wins for Republicans.
“There were more ads on transgender sports than inflation, gas prices and bread and butter issues that could have swayed independent voters,” Paul Cordes, chief of staff for the Michigan Republican Party, wrote in a 2022 memo after the party lost control of the state Legislature for the first time in a decade. A sweep of victories on election night gave Democrats control of Michigan’s Senate for the first time in 38 years.
Eighty percent of voters in Thursday’s Data For Progress poll said political candidates on both sides of the aisle should spend less time talking about transgender issues and devote more of their energy and campaign resources toward addressing voters’ priority issues, like the economy and inflation. Eighty-five percent of Republicans said candidates should back away from transgender messaging, according to the poll, eclipsing the share of Democratic (75 percent) and independent (82 percent) voters who said the same.
Another 55 percent of voters surveyed said state lawmakers over the past year have introduced “too much” legislation aimed at limiting the rights of transgender people. More than 500 anti-LGBTQ bills were introduced in state legislatures this year, primarily by Republicans. Nearly all of them, however, failed to become law, according to the American Civil Liberties Union.
Voters in Thursday’s poll said politicians “are playing political theater” and are using the bills as a wedge issue. A majority — 58 percent — said the government “should be less involved in regulating what transgender people are allowed to do, including the health care they can receive.”
While more than half of voters surveyed said they trust Democrats over Republicans to handle transgender issues, voters split more closely over which political party has taken a “more extreme stance” on trans policy. Fifty-two percent of voters surveyed, however — including 80 percent of Democrats and 46 percent of independents — said they are most likely to vote for a candidate who supports transgender rights.
A majority of Republicans, at 57 percent, said they are most likely to vote for a candidate who opposes trans rights, according to the poll. Similarly, Republicans were more likely than Democrats and independents to respond positively to a hypothetical campaign message calling for new laws to restrict access to gender-affirming health care and to keep “biological boys” out of girls’ sports.
An overwhelming majority of voters surveyed said they believe transgender people “deserve to be treated with dignity and respect,” including 86 percent of Democrats, 78 percent of independents and 58 percent of Republicans.