Mark McKinnon, a longtime GOP political adviser, says he thinks Vice President Harris will win the election, now just 18 days away.
“I’m going to make a bold prediction here because I just don’t give a s‑‑‑ if I’m wrong, even if this lives on the internet forever,” McKinnon wrote in an essay published Friday by Vanity Fair. “Kamala Harris is going to win. Maybe easily.”
McKinnon, who worked for President George W. Bush, cited what he viewed as a key difference between supporters of Harris and former President Trump.
“Here’s why I say it’s Harris’s to lose. Trump voters may be committed, but Harris voters are excited and enthusiastic. In August, the Harris–Tim Walz ticket enjoyed an eight-point lead when it came to voter enthusiasm,” he wrote, referencing an article about voter enthusiasm.
Last month, a USA Today/Suffolk University poll revealed that excitement among Harris voters surged past excitement among Trump voters, 68 percent to 60 percent. Gallup also highlighted voter enthusiasm earlier this year, saying “the party with the higher net-enthusiasm score at the end of a presidential campaign usually sees their candidate win.”
McKinnon noted a difference between the Democratic and Republican parties’ workers on the ground, too.
“And there is a big difference in the ground game. Democrats are largely paying their field workers, while Republicans are mostly relying on volunteers,” he wrote in the piece. “These are factors not being picked up on the radar of the head-to-head polling.”
Reporting from The New York Times earlier this month noted Harris has run an operation typical to how candidates have for years: deploying paid staff members to organize nationwide.
Trump, on the other hand, has focused on “less frequent voters” and relied on “well-funded but inexperienced outside groups,” according to the outlet.
McKinnon also invoked Project 2025, a conservative game plan for the next Republican presidency known for its controversial policy proposals written by several Trump loyalists. Democrats have attempted to tie the blueprint to the GOP presidential nominee and his allies, though Trump has sought to distance himself from it, saying he has “nothing to do with it.”
Finally, the former Republican adviser wrote, there’s a “gender gap” between the two candidates, adding that women will be the ones to help Harris win.
“Yes, Trump has an advantage with men. But I believe that in the end, the Harris gender gap with women will shatter all previous records and be determinative,” he said.
An Emerson College survey released Friday found the former president leading the vice president among men, 56 percent to 42 percent. Harris, however, outpaced her GOP rival among women, 55 percent to 41 percent.
Overall, the poll showed the Democratic nominee with a 1-point lead over Trump, 49 percent to 48 percent, nationally. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling index also shows a tight race, but Harris has a slightly wider, 2.5-point lead — 49.7 percent to 47.2 percent.
“But when it all comes out in the wash, I think women are going to do the work and save our a– and our democracy,” McKinnon continued. “They’ve been doing it for centuries, so it shouldn’t be a surprise.”